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Labour/ Greens 48% (up 9%) surge ahead of National Party 44% (down 7%) as Parliament debates contentious GCSB ‘Spying’ Bill

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 919 electors from July 29 – August 11, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a plunge in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 44% (down 7% since July 15-28, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for Labour has increased to 34% (up 5%); Greens are 14% (up 4%) – their highest level of support since August 2012, New Zealand First 3% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1% (down 0.5%) and Others 1% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 128 (down 0.5%) with 58% (down 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains good news for the Opposition Labour (34%, up 5%) and Greens (14%, up 4%) – now at their highest level of combined support in four months since early April 2013. The Greens have jumped to their highest level of support in a year since August 2012.

“The huge swings in support come as the contentious GCSB (Government Communications Security Bureau) ‘Spying’ Bill is heavily debated in Parliament. The Bill, which will increase the Government’s powers of surveillance over all New Zealand citizens, has faced strong opposition in Parliament. Prime Minister John Key has insisted on the importance of passage of the bill in the fight against terrorism claiming there are people living in New Zealand who had been trained by Al-Qaeda.

“Opposition to the bill is not just inside Parliament, with the Law Society saying there are ‘fundamental flaws in the GCSB Bill’ that minor adjustments insisted on by Independent MP Peter Dunne for his support do not alter.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 919 electors from July 29 – August 11, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - August 2013


New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213   
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215   
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1