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Cider poised to overtake alcopops

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) (Apr 2009 – Mar 2014), average MAT n=19,322. Base: Australians 18+
A short five years ago, cider barely registered as a popular drink, while politicians and lawmakers were loudly voicing their concerns about the level of pre-mixed spirits (‘alcopops’) consumption. Fast forward to 2014 and the latest data from Roy Morgan Research reveals that cider consumption is set to overtake that of pre-mixed spirits, perhaps within months.

In the year to March 2010, nearly 2.4 million Australian adults drank pre-mixed spirits in an average four weeks, while only a quarter of that (596,000) drank cider in the same period.

No doubt influenced by the excise tax increase on pre-mixed spirits in 2008, the number of pre-mixed spirits drinkers has been steadily declining over the last five years as cider (which was not subject to the tax increase) has quietly gained popularity. In the year to March 2014, the number of cider drinkers (2,009,000) was just 100,000 short of the number drinking pre-mixed spirits (2,109,000) — and if the growth trends continue, cider drinkers will outnumber those consuming alcopops by the end of 2014.

Number of Australians consuming Cider and Pre-Mixed Spirits in an average four-week period

cider-vs-RTD-consumption

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) (Apr 2009 – Mar 2014), average MAT n=19,322. Base: Australians 18+

Cider’s stratospheric growth is consistent across ages, genders, city dwellers and country folk. While there is no doubt that most cider drinkers are aged under 35, the proportional growth in consumption has been similar across all age groups. For example, between 2010 and 2014, the proportion of men aged between 25 and 34 who drank cider in an average four-week period rose from 7.4% to 21.4% — an increase of over 200%. Though the proportion of women aged 35-49 drinking cider was smaller, growth among this group over the same period was more than 250% (from 2.8% to 9.9%).

The number of people drinking pre-mixed spirits has declined among all age groups except men aged 50-64, who are more likely to be drinking pre-mixed spirits than they were in 2010.

Angela Smith, Group Account Director - Consumer Products, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“In what must be good news for cider producers, the last five years have seen cider’s popularity sky-rocket. But cider’s gain seems to be alcopops’ loss, with the number of people drinking pre-mixed spirits dropping. A major factor in the trend has almost certainly been the higher taxes on pre-mixed drinks, as well as a steadily increasing range of cider brands on the market.

"Using Roy Morgan’s revolutionary new profiling tool, Helix Personas, we can now understand these trends with unparalleled accuracy.

“For example, in the last two years, cider marketers would be interested to know that24% of individuals in the Young and Platinum persona drank cider in any given four weeks, compared to the national average of 11%. Clued in and cashed-up, Young and Platinum are always happy to try new and different products, so it’s no surprise that this segment has picked up on the cider trend.

“On the other hand, 25% of the Strugglestreet persona drank pre-mixed spirits, more than double the national average of 12%. Strugglestreet are characterised by low incomes and trying financial circumstances, which generally prevent them from jumping onto the latest trends — such as cider.”

For comments or more information please contact:

Angela Smith, Group Account Director - Consumer Products
Office: +61 (2) 9021 9101
Angela.Smith@roymorgan.com

Related research reports

View our Alcohol Profiles, including our Cider Drinker Profile or our Pre-Mixed Spirits Drinker Profile. These profiles provide a broad understanding of the target audience, in terms of demographics, attitudes, activities and media usage in Australia.

Learn more about Helix Personas here.

About Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on financial behaviour, readership, voting intentions and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2