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Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend October 24-27, 2014 with a cross-section of 6,370 Australian electors including 1,860 New South Wales electors, 1,700 Victorian electors, 1,286 Queensland electors, 546 Western Australian electors, 423 South Australian electors and 297 Tasmanian electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over four days (October 24-27, 2014) with a representative cross-section of 6,370 Australian electors around Australia shows the Coalition leads strongly in NSW: L-NP (56%, up 3%) cf. ALP (44%, down 3%) and it is too close to call in Queensland: ALP (50.5%, up 1.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%, down 1.5%). Both NSW & Queensland face State Elections early in 2015.

Today’s Morgan Poll results show that minor parties, including the Palmer United Party (PUP) are receiving a significant vote in all States and their preferences are determining the two-party preferred outcome. The Morgan Poll has consistently shown PUP support around Australia between 3.5% - 7% since the last Federal Election – and consistently above 7% in Queensland.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win a State Election easily

2PP: L-NP (56%, up 3% since September 26-29, 2014) cf. ALP (44%, down 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP (46%, unchanged); ALP (34%, up 1.5%), Greens (10.5%, down 1.5%), Palmer United Party (3.5%, unchanged), Christian Democrats (1.5%, down 0.5%), Family First (1.0%, down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others (3.5%, up 1%).

Better Premier (Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v John Robertson (ALP)):
Mr. Baird (68%, down 2.5%); Mr. Robertson (32%, up 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird: 36% (down 5%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.8% and under-employment is 8.1%. This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.9%. (Interviewed August – September 2014).

New South Wales State Election due in March 2015.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP#: ALP (50.5%, up 1.5% since September 26-29, 2014) cf. LNP (49.5%, down 1.5%).

Primary vote: LNP (38.5%, down 3.5%), ALP (38%, up 2.5%), Greens (10%, up 1%) Palmer United Party (6%, down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party (2%, down 0.5%), Independents/ Others (5.5%, up 1%).

Better Premier (Premier Campbell Newman (LNP) v Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP)):
Mr. Newman (47.5%, down 2.5%); Ms. Palaszczuk (52.5%, up 2.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 5% (up 5%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 10.0% and under-employment is 8.3%. This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 18.3%. (Interviewed August – September 2014).

Queensland State Election is being held no later than June 20, 2015.


VICTORIA: ALP would win a State Election

2PP: ALP (52.5%, down 1.5% since September 26-29, 2014) cf. L-NP (47.5%, up 1.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP (37.5%, unchanged); ALP (34%, unchanged), Greens (18.5%, up 0.5%), Palmer United Party (2.5%, down 0.5%), Family First (2.5%, up 0.5%), Country Alliance (0.5%, unchanged) and Independents/ Others (4.5%, down 0.5%).

Better Premier (Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP)):
Mr. Napthine (52%, up 1%); Mr. Andrews (48%, down 1%); Lead to Mr. Napthine: 4% (up 2%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 9.1% and under-employment is 10.3%. This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 19.4%. (Interviewed August – September 2014).

Victorian State Election being held on November 29, 2014.

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA: L-NP would win a close State Election

2PP: L-NP (53%, up 0.5% since September 26-29, 2014) cf. ALP (47%, down 0.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP (38.5%, down 4%), WA Nationals (6.5%, up 3.5%), ALP (32%, up 0.5%), Greens (15%, up 1%), Palmer United Party (3%, down 1.5%), Christians (2%, up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others (3%, unchanged).

Better Premier (Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP)): Mr. McGowan (59.5%, unchanged) cf. Mr. Barnett (40.5%, unchanged); Lead to Mr. McGowan: 19%.

Western Australian real unemployment is now 10.2% and under-employment is 5.8%. This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.0%. (Interviewed July – September 2014).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: ALP would win State Election

2PP: ALP (52.5%, up 3% since September 26-29, 2014) cf. L-NP (47.5%, down 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP (35.5%, down 4.5%), ALP (34.5%, down 1%), Greens (12.5%, up 2.5%), Family First (7%, up 3%), Palmer United Party (3.5%, down 2.5%) and Independents/ Others (7%, up 2.5%).

Better Premier (Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal)):
Mr. Weatherill (56%, up 6.5%) cf. Mr. Marshall (44%, down 6.5%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 10.6% and under-employment is 8.4%. This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 19%. (Interviewed July – September 2014).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.

 

TASMANIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP (52%, down 1.5%, since September 26-29, 2014) cf. L-NP (48%, up 1.5%) – Estimate. Two-Party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: L-NP (41%, up 1.5%), ALP (34%, up 0.5%), Greens (19%, down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (2.5%, down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others (3.5%, down 1%).

Better Premier (Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP)):
Mr. Hodgman (59%, down 4%); Mr. Green (41%, up 4%); Lead to Mr. Hodgman 18% (down 8%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 10.2% and under-employment is 17.0%. This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 27.2%. (Interviewed July – September 2014).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


Gary Morgan says:

“This special SMS Morgan Poll conducted last weekend shows that if State Elections were held today the L-NP would be easily re-elected in New South Wales (L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%), however it is too close to call in Queensland (ALP 50.5% cf. LNP 49.5%) – both States face elections early in 2015.

“In New South Wales, Premier Mike Baird (68%) is clearly preferred to Opposition Leader John Robertson (32%) as ‘Better Premier’ and is at present set to win his first State Election on the last Saturday of March 2015. Baird took over as Premier after former Liberal Leader Barry O’Farrell resigned earlier this year in April.

“Meanwhile in Queensland, Opposition Leader Anastacia Palaszczuk (52.5%) is for the first time preferred to Premier Campbell Newman (47.5%) as ‘Better Premier’. Ms. Palaszczuk is seeking to become the first woman in Australian history to lead a party from Opposition to a victory at a State Election.

“All previous female State Premiers (all ALP) have inherited the job while in Government (Carmen Lawrence (WA-1990); Joan Kirner (Victoria – 1990); Anna Bligh (Queensland – 2007); Kristina Keneally (NSW – 2009); Lara Giddings (Tasmania – 2011)).”

 

For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for New South Wales/ Victoria/ Queensland/ Western Australia/ South Australia/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend October 24-27, 2014 with a cross-section of 6,370 Australian electors including 1,860 New South Wales electors, 1,700 Victorian electors, 1,286 Queensland electors, 546 Western Australian electors, 423 South Australian electors and 297 Tasmanian electors.

As all ‘poll-watchers’ know News Corp’s ‘dislike’ of Clive Palmer means Newspoll doesn’t include the Palmer United Party (PUP) as an alternative in their Federal or State polls which leads to misleading results. The latest Newspoll for Queensland shows ‘Others’ polling 18% with no ‘breakdown’ of the figure.

#As there is no two-party preferred result released by the Queensland Electoral Commission for the Queensland Election the estimate for the 2012 Queensland Election is provided by ABC electoral analyst Antony Green showing the 2012 Queensland Election as LNP (63.1%) cf. ALP (36.9%).


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