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Liberals fight-back in Victoria with a week to go as ALP & Greens drop

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier was conducted over the week-end November 21-24, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,173 Victorian electors.

The ALP 52% on a two-party preferred basis (down 3% since November 19-20, 2014) holds a narrow lead over the L-NP 48% (up 3%) according to an SMS Morgan Poll conducted over the last weekend, November 21-24, 2014, with a representative cross-section of 1,173 Victorian electors.

On primary voting intention the L-NP 39.5% (up 4.5%) now leads the ALP 33.5% (down 2%) and the Greens have dropped to 17.5% (down 2%). Other minor parties include The Australian Sex Party 2.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1% (down 1%), Country Alliance 1% (up 1%) and Independents/Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier (Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP)):
Premier Denis Napthine 51.5% (up 4%) cf. Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews 48.5% (down 4%).
Lead to Mr. Napthine: 3% (up 8%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The Victorian Election looks set to go down to the wire this week with the ALP 52% (down 3%) holding a narrow lead over the L-NP 48% (up 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. The improved showing for the Government comes on the back of a vow by Victoria Premier Denis Napthine to campaign intensely over the final week of the campaign.

“Over the weekend Napthine committed to hiring an extra 700 frontline police which more than matches the ALP commitment to hire 400 custody officers to supervise police cell prisoners. Today’s Morgan Poll is the tightest result yet during the Victorian Election campaign which has shown the ALP leading throughout and gives weight to Napthine’s claim that the Government is the underdog.

“The L-NP 39.5% (up 4.5%) picked up primary vote support from both the ALP 33.5% (down 2%) and the Greens 17.5% (down 2%) – now at their lowest during the campaign. The loss of support for the two parties may be connected to the uncertainty surrounding the East-West Link infrastructure project. Both the ALP and Greens remain resolutely opposed to the $6.8 billion infrastructure project which will provide a huge boost to the Victorian economy. A recent special Morgan Poll conducted on September 12, 2014 showed a clear majority of Victorian electors (63.5%) believe the East-West Link tunnel should proceed.”

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier was conducted over the week-end November 21-24, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,173 Victorian electors.


Questions:

Victorians were asked (November 21-24, 2014):

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

Voting Preference – Two-Party Preferred

 

Victorian Election Nov 27, 2010

Sep 26-29,
2014

Oct 24-27,
2014

Nov 7-10,
2014

Nov 19-20,
2014

Nov. 21-24,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

48.4

54

52.5

53.5

55

52

L-NP

51.6

46

47.5

46.5

45

48

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100


Voting Preference – Primary Voting Intention

 

Victorian Election Nov 27, 2010

Sep 26-29, 2014

Oct 24-27,
2014

Nov 7-10,
2014*

Nov 19-20,
2014

Nov. 21-24,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.3

34

34

36

35.5

33.5

L-NP

44.8

37.5

37.5

38

35

39.5

Greens

11.2

18

18.5

18.5

19.5

17.5

Family First

2.3

2

2.5

2

2

1

Australian
Sex Party

0.5

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

2.5

Country Alliance

1.4

0.5

0.5

1.5

0

1

Ind./ Others

3.5

8

7

4

5

5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

*The Palmer United Party (PUP) announced on Sunday November 9, 2014 that it was not going to stand any candidates in the Victorian Legislative Assembly at Victoria’s State Election. The PUP vote recorded in this survey (2%) has been reallocated between the major parties based on preference flows at the last election.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093