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Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call. Palmer United Party loses support in every State

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend November 21-24, 2014 with a cross-section of 4,882 Australian electors including 1,253 New South Wales electors, 1,173 Victorian electors, 1,179 Queensland electors, 505 Western Australian electors, 491 South Australian electors and 281 Tasmanian electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted last weekend (November 21-24, 2014) with a representative cross-section of 4,882 Australian electors around Australia shows the Coalition is well ahead in NSW. NSW: L-NP 55% (down 1%) cf. ALP 45% (up 1%) while it is ‘too close to call’ in Queensland: LNP 50.5% (up 1%) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 1%). Both NSW & Queensland face State Elections early in 2015.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win a State Election

2PP: L-NP 55% (down 1% since October 24-27, 2014) cf. ALP 45% (up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 44% (down 2%); ALP 32.5% (down 1.5%), Greens 12.5% (up 2%), Christian Democrats 2.5% (up 1%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (down 2%), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v John Robertson (ALP):
Mr. Baird 70% (up 2%) cf. Mr. Robertson 30% (down 2%); Lead to Mr. Baird: 40% (up 4%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 9.3% (up 0.5% since August & September 2014) and under-employment is 9.2% (up 1.1%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 18.5% (up 1.6%). (Interviewed October & November 2014).

New South Wales State Election is scheduled for March 28, 2015.

 

QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP#: LNP 50.5% (up 1% since October 24-27, 2014) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 1%).

Primary vote: LNP 39% (up 0.5%), ALP 36.5% (down 1.5%), Greens 9.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party 4% (down 2%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (up 1.5%), Independents/ Others 7.5% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Campbell Newman (LNP) v Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP):
Ms. Palaszczuk 52.5% (unchanged) cf. Mr. Newman 47.5% (unchanged); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 5% (unchanged).

Queensland real unemployment is now 10.9% (up 0.9% since August & September 2014) and under-employment is 9.3% (up 1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 20.2% (up 1.9%). (Interviewed October & November 2014).

Queensland State Election is being held no later than June 20, 2015.


VICTORIA: ALP would win a close State Election (Released on Monday November 24, 2014)

2PP: ALP 52% (down 3% since November 19/20, 2014) cf. L-NP 48% (up 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP 39.5% (up 4.5%); ALP 33.5% (down 2%), Greens 17.5% (down 2%), Australian Sex Party 2.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1% (down 1%), Country Alliance 1% (up 1%) and Independents/ Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP):
Mr. Napthine 51.5% (up 4%) cf. Mr. Andrews 48.5% (down 4%); Lead to Mr. Napthine: 3% (up 8%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 8.7% (down 0.4% since August & September 2014) and under-employment is 9.9% (down 0.4%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 18.6% (down 0.8%). (Interviewed October & November 2014).

Victorian State Election being held this Saturday on November 29, 2014.


Final SMS Victorian Morgan Poll will be released Friday Morning (Friday November 28, 2014)


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 51.5% (down 1.5% since October 24-27, 2014) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 1.5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 35% (down 3.5%), WA Nationals 7% (up 0.5%), ALP 30.5% (down 1.5%), Greens 15.5% (up 0.5%), Christians 3% (up 1%), Palmer United Party 2% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 7% (up 4%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 57% (down 2.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett 43% (up 2.5%); Lead to Mr. McGowan: 14% (down 5%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 9.2% (down 1% since July – September 2014) and under-employment is 7.1% (up 1.3%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.3% (up 0.3%). (September - November 2014).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51.5% (down 1% since October 24-27, 2014) cf. L-NP 48.5% (up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 38.5% (up 3%), ALP 35% (up 0.5%), Greens 13% (up 0.5%), Family First 4.5% (down 2.5%), Palmer United Party 2.5% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 54.5% (down 1.5%) cf. Mr. Marshall 45.5% (up 1.5%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 9% (down 3%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 9.7% (down 0.9% since July – September 2014) and under-employment is 9.2% (up 0.8%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 18.9% (down 0.1%).  (September - November 2014).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.

 

TASMANIA: ALP would win Election easily

2PP: ALP 55% (up 3% since October 24-27, 2014) cf. Liberals 45% (down 3%) – Estimate. Two-Party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: ALP 41.5% (up 7.5%), Liberals 39% (down 2%), Greens 13% (down 6%), Palmer United Party 2% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 60% (up 1%); Mr. Green 40% (down 1%); Lead to Mr. Hodgman 20% (up 2%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 11.6% (up 1.4% since July – September 2014) and under-employment is 14.9% (down 2.1%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 26.5% (down 0.7%). (Interviewed September - November 2014).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted last weekend in New South Wales shows the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%) hold a strong lead on a two-party preferred basis in and Premier Mike Baird (70%) is clearly preferred to Opposition Leader John Robertson (30%) as ‘Better Premier’ (only four months before next year’s New South Wales State Election).

“However, further 'north' in Queensland next year’s State Election is ‘too close to call’ with the LNP (50.5%) cf. ALP (49.5%) now just ahead on a two-party preferred basis although Opposition Leader Anastacia Palasczuk (52.5%) is still slightly preferred to Premier Campbell Newman (47.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“These results are probably best explained by looking at the levels of unemployment and under-employment in each State. In New South Wales unemployment is 9.3% and under-employment 9.2% (a total of 18.5% in October-November 2014) while in Queensland unemployment is much higher at 10.9% and under-employment is 9.3% (a total of 20.2% in October-November 2014) – all figures from the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimates.

“In the remaining States which don’t face elections in the near future the L-NP holds a narrow lead in Western Australia: L-NP (51.5%) cf. ALP (48.5%) while the ALP lead in both South Australia: ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%) and Tasmania: ALP (55%) cf. Liberals (45%).”

 

For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for New South Wales/ Victoria/ Queensland/ Western Australia/ South Australia/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend November 21-24, 2014 with a cross-section of 4,882 Australian electors including 1,253 New South Wales electors, 1,173 Victorian electors, 1,179 Queensland electors, 505 Western Australian electors, 491 South Australian electors and 281 Tasmanian electors.

As all ‘poll-watchers’ know News Corp’s ‘dislike’ of Clive Palmer means Newspoll doesn’t include the Palmer United Party (PUP) as an alternative in their Federal or State polls which leads to misleading results. The latest Newspoll for Queensland shows ‘Others’ polling 18% with no ‘breakdown’ of the figure.

#As there is no two-party preferred result released by the Queensland Electoral Commission for the Queensland Election the estimate for the 2012 Queensland Election is provided by ABC electoral analyst Antony Green showing the 2012 Queensland Election as LNP (63.1%) cf. ALP (36.9%). 


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