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ALP favoured to win Victorian Election but late surge to Liberals continues. A close election will be decided on minor party preferences

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier was conducted over the last two nights of November 26-27, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,163 Victorian electors.

The L-NP 50% on a two-party preferred basis (down 1.6% since the 2010 Victorian Election) is level with the ALP 50% (up 1.6%) a day before Saturday’s Victorian Election according to a special SMS Morgan Poll conducted over the last two days, November 26-27, 2014, with a representative cross-section of 1,163 Victorian electors.

The ALP is favoured to win a close election with the result decided on minor party preferences as the ALP two-party preferred vote of 50% is up 1.6% since the 2010 Victorian Election.

On primary voting intention the L-NP 44% (down 0.8%) leads the ALP 36% (down 0.3%) and the Greens are on 13.5% (up 2.3%). Minor parties include Family First 1.5% (down 0.8%), The Australian Sex Party 0.5% (unchanged), Country Alliance 0.5% (down 0.9%) and Independents/Others 4% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP):
Premier Denis Napthine 50.5% (down 1% since November 21-24, 2014) cf. Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews 49.5% (up 1%). Lead to Dr. Napthine: 1% (down 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“L-NP primary support of 44% is down 0.8% since the 2010 Victorian Election. Although clearly ahead of the ALP (36%, down 0.3%) an increase in support for the Greens 13.5% (up 2.3%) will help the ALP’s prospects compared to four years ago. The L-NP 50% (down 1.6%) is level with the ALP 50% (up 1.6%) on a two-party preferred basis the day before tomorrow’s election. The closeness of today’s Morgan Poll means minor party preferences will play a pivotal role in deciding which party wins tomorrow’s Election.

“In a significant development over the last few days PM Tony Abbott has drawn widespread media attention to the real costs of the ALP cancelling the East-West Link contract. Abbott has made clear the Federal Government will withdraw $3 billion in funding already promised for the East-West Link if the Labor Party win the election and ‘tear up’ the contract for the project.

“This cost is in addition to a potential compensation claim of over $1 billion if the East-West Link project does not go ahead. An important Morgan Poll conducted two months ago showed a clear majority of Victorian electors (63.5%) want the East-West Link project to go ahead compared to 36.5% who are opposed.

“Former long-serving Liberal Prime Minister John Howard made a surprise appearance on the campaign trail this week in a late bid to link Premier Napthine to the Howard Government’s well-established economic competency over many years. Howard’s intervention diverted the electorate’s attention away from concerns regarding the Federal Budget.”

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier was conducted over the last two nights of November 26-27, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,163 Victorian electors.


Questions:

Victorians were asked (November 26-27, 2014):

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?


Voting Preference – Two-Party Preferred

 

Victorian Election

Nov 27, 2010

Sep 29,

2014

Oct 27,
2014

Nov 7-10,
2014

Nov 19-20,
2014

Nov. 21-24,
2014

Nov. 26-27,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

48.4

54

52.5

53.5

55

52

50

L-NP

51.6

46

47.5

46.5

45

48

50

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Voting Preference – Primary Voting Intention

 

Victorian Election

Nov 27, 2010

Sep 29,

2014

Oct 27,
2014

Nov 7-10,
2014*

Nov 19-20,
2014

Nov. 21-24,
2014

Nov. 26-27,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.3

34

34

36

35.5

33.5

36

L-NP

44.8

37.5

37.5

38

35

39.5

44

Greens

11.2

18

18.5

18.5

19.5

17.5

13.5

Family First

2.3

2

2.5

2

2

1

1.5

Australian
Sex Party

0.5

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

2.5

0.5

Country Alliance

1.4

0.5

0.5

1.5

0

1

0.5

Ind./ Others

3.5

8

7

4

5

5

4

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*The Palmer United Party (PUP) announced on Sunday November 9, 2014 that it was not going to stand any candidates in the Victorian Legislative Assembly at Victoria’s State Election. The PUP vote recorded in this survey (2%) has been reallocated between the major parties based on preference flows at the last election.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093