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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Remains Soft Early in 2015

Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,003 face-to-face interviews.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose just 0.3% to 112 in the week ending January 11. This follows a moderate rise of 1.4% last week, but leaves confidence below levels seen in late November before the hit from the weak Q3 GDP print and newsflow around the Federal Budget.

‘Household finances compared to a year ago’, historically the sub-index most correlated with household spending, fell 2.4% last week. Looking through the weekly volatility, this sub-index has been fairly stable in recent months.

The sub-index, ‘Time to buy a major household item’, rose to its highest level since early-August, which could possibly reflect discounting in the post-Christmas sales.

ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:

“The lack of momentum in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence remains disappointing especially given lower petrol prices and the usual seasonal uplift in January (confidence is not seasonally adjusted). Subdued levels of confidence, combined with soft retail sales in November and mixed anecdotes about December sales, suggest that households may be saving rather than spending the real income boost from lower petrol prices. We expect a turnaround in the labour market is the key to an improvement in confidence. While ANZ job ads are suggesting an improvement in labour demand, the official labour market data are more subdued. This may reflect an unusually high level of job losses which would likely be weighing on confidence. As such, we will be watching the December labour force numbers on Thursday closely.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence - January 13, 2015 - 112.0

ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence - January 13, 2015 - 112.0

ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence - January 13, 2015 - 112.0

Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.