This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of January 12-13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.
A telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights this week (January 12-13, 2015) finds:
- Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull is preferred as Liberal Leader by 36% of electors (down 2% since September 30-October 2, 2014) but still well ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop (26%, up 10%) and Prime Minister Tony Abbott (14%, down 5%). Bishop is now ahead of Abbott for the first time as preferred Liberal Leader. No other candidate has more than 4% support.
- However, L-NP voters just narrowly prefer Prime Minister Tony Abbott (30%, down 11%) as Liberal Party Leader ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop (28%, up 11%) and Malcolm Turnbull (26%, up 2%). Treasurer Joe Hockey has lost significant support and is now at only 4% (down 4%).
- Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is preferred by only 25% (up 4%) of electors as ALP Leader ahead of 18% (unchanged) who prefer Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek and 10% (down 5%) who prefer Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese and 10% (unchanged) that prefer former Treasurer Wayne Swan.
- Amongst ALP supporters Bill Shorten (35%, up 8%) is increasingly favoured over Tanya Plibersek (21%, up 1%), Wayne Swan (12%, up 3%) and Anthony Albanese (8%, down 7%).
- If Mr Abbott were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, it would appear to be a two-horse race between Malcolm Turnbull (38%, down 4%) and a surging Julie Bishop (32%, up 9%).
- If Opposition Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek (21%, unchanged) is narrowly preferred as ALP Leader ahead of former Treasurer Wayne Swan (16%, up 2%) and Anthony Albanese (14%, down 5%).
Gary Morgan says:
“Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull (36%, down 2%) is once again the preferred Liberal Leader although Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (26%, up 10%) is now ahead of Prime Minister Tony Abbott (14%, down 5%) for the first time. Bishop’s support has surged over the past year following her strong performance as Foreign Minister dealing with the crash of MH17 in Eastern Ukraine and also the increasing tension surrounding the Islamic State (ISIS) in the Middle East.
“However, L-NP supporters still narrowly favour Abbott (30%, down 11%) over both Bishop (28%, up 11%) and Turnbull (26%, up 2%). It appears that Bishop has gained support from L-NP voters who previously supported Abbott whereas Turnbull is virtually unchanged from three months ago.
“Electors are more confused about who they want leading the ALP with no candidate attracting more than a quarter of the electorate’s support – although current Labor Leader Bill Shorten (25%, up 4%) has slightly consolidated his lead over Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek (18%, unchanged) and is now significantly in front of both Shadow Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (10%, down 5%) and former Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan (10%, unchanged).”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of January 12-13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).
Preferred Coalition Leader
Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”
|
|
Tony Abbott as
Oppn. Leader
|
Tony Abbott
as Prime Minister
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
|
|
July 16/17,
2013
|
June 3-5,
2014
|
Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014
|
Jan 12-13,
2015
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Palmer
|
Ind/
Other
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Turnbull
|
51
|
44
|
38
|
36
|
26
|
43
|
58
|
22
|
20
|
|
J. Bishop
|
7
|
7
|
16
|
26
|
28
|
23
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
|
Abbott
|
16
|
15
|
19
|
14
|
30
|
5
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
Hockey
|
14
|
11
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
-
|
12
|
5
|
|
Joyce
|
n/a
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
11
|
6
|
|
Morrison
|
n/a
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
Pyne
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
4
|
|
Robb
|
1
|
2
|
*
|
*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
Someone else
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
Can’t say
|
9
|
12
|
14
|
11
|
4
|
14
|
11
|
27
|
24
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.
Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott
Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:
“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce & Scott Morrison?”
The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.
| |
Tony Abbott as Oppn. Leader
|
Tony Abbott
as Prime Minister
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
|
|
July 16/17,
2013
|
June 3-5,
2014
|
Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014
|
Jan 12-13,
2015
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Palmer
|
Ind/Other
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Turnbull
|
57
|
48
|
42
|
38
|
33
|
43
|
58
|
22
|
20
|
|
J. Bishop
|
11
|
9
|
23
|
32
|
40
|
26
|
28
|
28
|
29
|
|
Hockey
|
19
|
15
|
9
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
-
|
12
|
5
|
|
Joyce
|
n/a
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
11
|
6
|
|
Morrison
|
n/a
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
Pyne
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
4
|
|
Robb
|
2
|
2
|
*
|
*
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
Someone else
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
|
Can’t say
|
8
|
15
|
16
|
13
|
7
|
15
|
11
|
27
|
27
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.
Preferred Labor Leader
Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”
| |
PM Rudd
|
Prime Minister Tony Abbott
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
|
|
July 16/17,
2013
|
June 3-5,
2014
|
Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014
|
Jan 12-13,
2015
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Palmer
|
Ind/
Other
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Shorten
|
9
|
22
|
21
|
25
|
24
|
35
|
7
|
7
|
10
|
|
Plibersek
|
n/a
|
16
|
18
|
18
|
10
|
21
|
40
|
-
|
8
|
|
Albanese
|
n/a
|
15
|
15
|
10
|
15
|
8
|
11
|
11
|
4
|
|
Swan
|
5
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
12
|
7
|
11
|
12
|
|
Bowen
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
4
|
2
|
9
|
13
|
|
Macklin
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
11
|
-
|
8
|
|
Burke
|
n/a
|
3
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
3
|
2
|
12
|
6
|
|
Rudd
|
42
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Gillard
|
9
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Smith
|
9
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Combet
|
4
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Someone else
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
-
|
6
|
|
Can’t say
|
13
|
23
|
21
|
19
|
21
|
11
|
18
|
50
|
33
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten
Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:
“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?”
The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.
|
|
PM Rudd
|
Prime Minister Tony Abbott
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
|
|
July 16/17,
2013
|
June 3-5,
2014
|
Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014
|
Jan 12-13,
2015
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Palmer
|
Ind/
Other
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Shorten
|
15
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Plibersek
|
n/a
|
21
|
21
|
21
|
11
|
29
|
42
|
-
|
8
|
|
Swan
|
14
|
13
|
14
|
16
|
16
|
18
|
8
|
11
|
12
|
|
Albanese
|
n/a
|
19
|
19
|
14
|
19
|
13
|
11
|
11
|
4
|
|
Bowen
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
8
|
2
|
16
|
13
|
|
Macklin
|
4
|
7
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
11
|
-
|
11
|
|
Burke
|
n/a
|
5
|
3
|
7
|
10
|
5
|
4
|
12
|
6
|
|
Gillard
|
16
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Smith
|
13
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Combet
|
7
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Someone else
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
-
|
6
|
|
Can’t say
|
22
|
26
|
28
|
24
|
27
|
18
|
20
|
50
|
40
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
For further information:
|
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
|
500
|
±4.3
|
±3.8
|
±2.6
|
±1.9
|
|
1,000
|
±3.2
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.