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More Australians believe Bill Shorten would make a ‘Better PM’ than Tony Abbott

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of January 12-13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.

Despite neither Leader having positive job approval, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 6% since October 2014) now narrowly leads Prime Minister Tony Abbott 41% (down 3%) as the ‘Better PM’ according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights January 12-13, 2015.

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Prime Minister Tony Abbott has lost popularity with a majority of electors 52% (up 5%) now disapproving of his handling of his job as Prime Minister, only 37% (down 7%) approve while 11% (up 2%) can’t say.

Australian electors have a similar view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling his job as Opposition Leader; 40% (down 2%) disapprove and 37% (unchanged) approve although a much higher 23% (up 2%) still can’t say how they view the Opposition Leader after more than a year in the job.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows men are equally divided on the two leaders with Abbott 43% (down 6%) cf. Shorten 43% (up 9%) as ‘Better PM’ while women slightly favour Shorten 43% (up 2%) over Abbott 40% (unchanged).

When judging Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister, a majority of men 51% (up 8%) disapprove while only 39% (down 12%) approve. Similarly, more women disapprove 52% (up 1%) than approve 35% (down 3%) of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister.

For Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader: Less than half of men 42% (down 3%) disapprove of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job while 39% (down 1%) approve. Among women: 38% (down 1%) disapprove cf. 36% (up 2%) approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows neither political leader enjoys widespread support – although Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 6% since October 2014) is narrowly preferred to Prime Minister Tony Abbott (41%, down 3%) as the ‘Better PM’ by Australian electors.

“However, both Leaders are rated poorly for their handling of their respective jobs. Clearly more Australian electors disapprove (52%) of Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister than approve (37%) and the same applies for Shorten as Opposition Leader: Disapprove (40%) cf. approve (37%).

“In contrast to previous Morgan Polls on this question dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Abbott is widespread with a negligible ‘gender gap’ when electors assess Prime Minister Abbott’s job performance - a majority of both men (51%) and women (52%) disapprove of Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week, January 12/13, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

For the poll watchers

In addition to interviewing electors on how they view the leadership of the two major parties the Morgan Poll also measured voting intention for all electors which showed a two-party preferred result over the last two nights of ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%). This result is similar to the multi-mode Morgan Poll result of the past two weekends (January 3/4 & 10/11, 2015) which showed the ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%).

Better Prime Minister: Abbott v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Tony Abbott and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Abbott or Mr. Shorten?”

PM Gillard
v Abbot

Prime Minister Rudd
v Abbott

Prime Minister Abbott
v Shorten

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

Oct 18-20,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister

Gillard/ Rudd/ Abbott

50

52

46

43

40

38

44

41

Abbott/ Abbott/ Shorten

43

36

43

44

36

43

37

43

Gillard/ Rudd/ Abbott lead

7

16

3

(1)

4

(5)

7

(2)

Other / Can’t say

7

12

11

13

24

19

19

16

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Jan 12-13,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

41

43

40

34

40

36

40

56

Shorten

43

43

43

51

45

51

42

26

Abbott lead

(2)

-

(3)

(17)

(5)

(15)

(2)

30

Neither/ Can’t say

16

14

17

15

15

13

18

18

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 12-13,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

41

86

10

5

44

29

25

Shorten

43

7

77

78

7

32

-

Abbott lead

(2)

79

(67)

(73)

37

(3)

25

Neither/ Can’t say

16

7

13

17

49

39

75

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Approval of Leaders – Tony Abbott v Bill Shorten

Prime Minister: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

PM Julia Gillard

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

27

45

40

36

34

44

37

Disapprove

48

65

40

49

53

59

47

52

Approve -
Disapprove

(6)

(38)

5

(9)

(17)

(25)

(3)

(15)

Can’t say

10

8

15

11

11

7

9

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Jan 12-13,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

37

39

35

36

32

28

36

57

Disapprove

52

51

52

54

56

60

50

35

Approve -
Disapprove

(15)

(12)

(17)

(18)

(24)

(32)

(14)

22

Can’t say

11

10

13

10

12

12

14

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 12-13,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

37

76

10

3

35

25

24

Disapprove

52

14

77

94

44

58

41

Approve -
Disapprove

(15)

62

(67)

(91)

(9)

(33)

(17)

Can’t say

11

10

13

3

21

17

35

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Bill Shorten

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Shorten is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Bill Shorten as Opposition Leader

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

28

41

38

42

41

35

37

37

Disapprove

63

51

54

48

51

45

42

40

Approve -
Disapprove

(35)

(10)

(16)

(6)

(10)

(10)

(5)

(3)

Can’t say

9

8

8

10

8

20

21

23

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Jan 12-13,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

37

39

36

31

33

39

39

37

Disapprove

40

42

38

44

32

39

37

48

Approve -
Disapprove

(3)

(3)

(2)

(13)

1

-

2

(11)

Can’t say

23

19

26

25

35

22

24

15

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 12-13,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

37

35

49

30

-

20

5

Disapprove

40

51

25

41

71

53

37

Approve -
Disapprove

(3)

(16)

24

(11)

(71)

(33)

(32)

Can’t say

23

14

26

29

29

27

58

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4