Back To Listing

Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while all other States are close

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between July 31 – August 3, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,948 Australian electors including 1,199 New South Wales electors, 1,089 Victorian electors, 898 Queensland electors, 567 Western Australian electors, 609 South Australian electors and 329 Tasmanian electors.

The L-NP leads strongly in NSW: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% and the ALP holds a similarly large lead in Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% on two-party preferred bases in early August, according to this month’s SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention.

State voting intention was conducted in early August with a representative cross-section of 4,948 Australian electors.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 56% (down 1% since June 19-21, 2015) cf. ALP 44% (up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 49.5% (unchanged), ALP 28.5% (up 1%), Greens 15.5% (up 1.5%), Christian Democrats 2% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 72.5% (up 2.5% since June 19-21, 2015) cf. Mr. Foley 27.5% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 45% (up 5%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.7% (down 1.3% since April - May 2015) and under-employment is 8% (up 0.4%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.7% (down 0.9%). (Interviewed June - July 2015).

Last New South Wales State Election was held on Saturday March 28, 2015


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 56.5% (unchanged since June 19-21, 2015) cf. L-NP 43.5% (unchanged).

Primary vote: ALP 41% (down 1%), L-NP 38% (down 0.5%); Greens 14% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal): Mr. Andrews 64% (up 2.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 36% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 28% (up 5%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 8.3% (down 0.9% since April - May 2015) and under-employment is 7.5% (down 2.1%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 15.8% (down 3%). (Interviewed June – July 2015).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51% (down 0.5% since June 19-21, 2015) cf. LNP 49% (up 0.5%).  Female electors: ALP 54.5% (down 0.5%) cf. LNP 45.5% (up 0.5%). Male electors: LNP 53% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 47% (down 0.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 41% (down 1%), ALP 36% (down 3.5%), Greens 13% (up 3.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4% (up 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 0.5%). Female electors: ALP 39.5% (down 5%), LNP 36% (down 3%), Greens 13% (up 4.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4% (up 1.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 1%), Independents/ Others 5% (up 1%). Male electors: LNP 46.5% (up 2%), ALP 32% (down 2%), Greens 13% (up 2.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4% (down 0.5%), Family First 0.5% (down 1%), Independents/ Others 4% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 64% (up 3% since June 19-21, 2015) cf. Mr. Springborg 36% (down 3%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 28% (up 6%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 73% (up 8%) cf. Mr. Springborg 27% (down 8%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 46% (up 16%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 55% (down 2%) cf. Mr. Springborg 45% (up 2%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 10% (down 4%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 9% (down 3.7% since April – May 2015) and under-employment is 9.5% (up 0.7%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 18.5% (down 3%). (Interviewed June– July 2015).

Last Queensland State Election was held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: ALP would win close Election

2PP: ALP 51.5% (up 4% since June 19-21, 2015) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).

Primary vote: Liberal 34.5% (down 4%), ALP 33% (up 0.5%), WA Nationals 5.5% (down 1.5%), Greens 17% (up 3%), Christians 2.5% (up 1.5%), and Independents/ Others 7.5% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP): Mr. McGowan 58.5% (unchanged) cf. Mr. Barnett 41.5% (unchanged; Lead to Mr McGowan 17% (unchanged).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 9.3% (down 0.5% since March - May 2015) and under-employment is 8% (up 1.5%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 17.3% (up 1%). (Interviewed May – July 2015).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51% (up 2% since June 19-21, 2015) cf. L-NP 49% (down 2%).

Primary vote: L-NP 39.5% (down 3.5%), ALP 34% (up 0.5%), Greens 14% (up 0.5%), Family First 4.5% (up 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 8% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal): Mr. Marshall 53% (up 2%) cf. Mr. Weatherill 47% (down 2%); Lead to Mr Marshall 6% (up 4%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 11.5% (up 0.5% since March – May 2015) and under-employment is 9.3% (down 1.3%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 20.8% (down 0.8%). (Interviewed May – July 2015).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: Liberals 50.5% (up 2% since June 19-21, 2015) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 2%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 44% (up 1.5%), ALP 31% (down 2%), Greens 20% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP): Mr. Hodgman 64% (up 3%); Mr. Green 36% (down 3%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 28% (up 6%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 12% (down 1.8% since March – May 2015) and under-employment is 8.0% (up 1%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 20.0% (down 0.8%). (Interviewed May - July 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia in early August shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird maintains a strong lead despite a small fall in support: L-NP 56% (down 1% since June) cf. ALP 44% (up 1%). Baird has also increased his lead as Australia’s most popular State Premier: Baird 72.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 27.5% (down 2.5%).

“In Victoria the eight-month honeymoon period continues for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor Government with the ALP 56.5% (unchanged since June) still well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (unchanged). Premier Daniel Andrews has increased his strong lead as ‘Better Premier’: Andrews 64% (up 2.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 36% (down 2.5%).

“In Queensland the ALP Government has a narrow lead: ALP 51% (down 0.5% since June) cf. LNP 49% (up 0.5%) while Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has increased her lead as ‘Better Premier’: Ms. Palaszczuk 64% (up 3%) cf. Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg 36% (down 3%).

“However, in Western Australia the Opposition has regained the initiative with the ALP 51.5% (up 4% since June) now ahead of the L-NP Government 48.5% (down 4% since June) and Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 58.5% (unchanged) is clearly regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ in the West over Premier Colin Barnett 41.5% (unchanged).

“In South Australia the ALP Government has regained a narrow advantage: ALP 51% (up 2% since June) cf. L-NP 49% (down 2%) although Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 53% (up 2%) is preferred to SA Premier Jay Weatherill 47% (down 2%) as ‘Better Premier’. In Tasmania the Liberal Government 50.5% (up 2% since June) has a very narrow advantage over the ALP 49.5% (down 2%) while Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 64% (up 3%) has increased his strong lead over Opposition Leader Bryan Green 36% (down 3%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between July 31 – August 3, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,948 Australian electors including 1,199 New South Wales electors, 1,089 Victorian electors, 898 Queensland electors, 567 Western Australian electors, 609 South Australian electors and 329 Tasmanian electors.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093