Back To Listing

L-NP increases lead over ALP – now 57.5% cf. 42.5%; biggest lead for Coalition since being elected in 2013

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, December 5/6 & 12/13, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,164 Australian electors.
In mid-December L-NP support rose to 57.5% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 42.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP was 48% (up 1.5%) and down 1.5% for the ALP to 27%. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 14.5%, Katter’s Australian Party is 1.5% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 8% (down 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Despite increased support for the Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 7pts this week to 115 with 48.5% (down 3%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 33.5% (up 4%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the first drop in Government Confidence since Turnbull became Australian Prime Minister three months ago.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, December 5/6 & 12/13, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,164 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders support the L-NP.  The swing to the L-NP, away from the ALP, was mostly amongst men: L-NP 60.5% (up 3%) cf. ALP 39.5% (down 3%); women: L-NP 55% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 45% (down 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds (ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%) but the L-NP now leads amongst 25-34yr olds (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%). The L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 60% cf. ALP 40%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 66.5% cf. ALP 33.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. New South Wales: L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5%, Western Australia: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%, Queensland: LNP 59% cf. ALP 41%, Tasmania: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, South Australia: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% and Victoria: L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (56%) cf. ALP (44%) – this is largely because Greens voters are now preferring Turnbull’s L-NP at a greater rate than at the last election – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.     


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"Today’s Morgan Poll shows another increase in support for the Turnbull Government: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5% on a two-party preferred basis as Parliament adjourns for the Christmas break. Parliament sits for the first time in 2016 in the first week of February.

“The Turnbull Government has strengthened their lead over the ALP – now the biggest lead for the Coalition Government since winning the 2013 Federal Election – despite the controversy surrounding Special Minister of State Mal Brough and the aborted defection of former Abbott Government Minister Ian Macfarlane in recent weeks and following the arguments over taxation reform (including increasing the GST) between the Federal and State Governments – although no decisions have yet been made.

“Although these issues have not impacted the Government’s popularity, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has this week dropped to 115 (down 7pts) This is the first time the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen since Turnbull became Prime Minister three months ago today.

“New Treasurer Scott Morrison today delivered the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) showing the Federal Budget deficit increasing to $37.4 billion – an increase in the forecast deficit by $2.3 billion since this year’s Budget.

“The scale of today’s Budget ‘blow-out’ shows the Turnbull Government faces a challenging twelve months as it attempts to win a mandate in its own right at next year’s Federal Election whilst also steering the Australian economy through a slowing economy caused by the end of the long-running commodities boom.”

 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6609 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends December 5/6 & 12/13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,164 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - December 15, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0