ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers after Federal Election result

Confidence reversed the previous week’s loss. All the sub-indices were positive. The survey coincided with the election, so much of the gain likely reflects the impact of the surprise win by the Coalition.

• Current financial conditions rose by 0.5%, while future financial conditions were up 1.2%.
• Economic conditions, which were responsible for much of the previous week’s fall, were also in positive territory. Current economic conditions were up 3.8%, compared to a fall of 8.1% previously, while future economic conditions were up 0.9%.
• The ‘time to buy a household item’ also rose significantly; it was up 4.1% to its highest level since the end of March. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was down by 0.1 ppt to 4.1%. 

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“The surprise election result, which people surveyed on Sunday would have known, most likely had a significant impact on sentiment. After all, the tone of the domestic economic data released during the week prior to the survey (falling business conditions, modest wage gains and rising unemployment) would not have provided much of a boost to confidence. The move only reverses the prior week’s fall, however, so we won’t overplay it. Still, it leaves consumer sentiment above average.”