Indonesian Consumer Confidence jumps 2.6pts to 162.8 in August
In August 2019 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased by 2.6pts from July to 162.8. This is 4.6pts higher than a year ago in August 2018 (158.2) and a significant 25.6pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 137.2.
The increase in Consumer Confidence from a year ago has been for the less well educated Indonesian, and particularly those with a secondary school education, while Consumer Confidence is slightly down for Indonesians with a tertiary education. Further details on Consumer Confidence by education below.
Analysis of the latest consumer confidence (August 2019) compared to a month ago shows this month’s increase is due to more Indonesians expressing confidence about their personal financial situations and economic conditions in Indonesia over the next year.
Now 44% (unchanged) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 8% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
An increased majority of 74% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 3% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
In August, 93% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 7% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
And looking at the longer-term, now 94% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 5% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.
An increasing majority of 65% (unchanged) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 33% (up 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,280 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in August throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities.
Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ August 2019 (n=1,280).
Consumer Confidence up most for secondary school educated Indonesians from a year ago
Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by education level shows increases for lesser educated Indonesians, and particularly those with a secondary school education, while there is a slight decline for the most well-educated Indonesians compared to this time a year ago.
Although Consumer Confidence for Indonesians who have a University Degree/ Tertiary Diploma or who are now at University has declined slightly by 2pts to 175.1 in August, that is still far higher than for any other education level and nearly 10% above the national average of 162.8.
The biggest increase in Consumer Confidence is for Indonesians who attended Secondary School but without graduating, up by 9.2pts to 162 – and now just below the national average.
Indonesians who graduated Secondary School had the second biggest increase, up by 5pts to 164, and are again just above the national average for Consumer Confidence.
Once again it is the least well educated Indonesians with clearly the lowest Consumer Confidence in August at more than 10% below the national average. Indonesians with only a Primary School education now have Consumer Confidence of 145.6, up 3.3pts on a year ago.
Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Education: August 2018 cf. August 2019
Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ August 2018 (n=1,282) & August 2019 (n=1,280).
Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says
“In August Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased by 2.6pts to 162.8 driven by increasing confidence about prospects for the year ahead.
“Now 93% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year and 74% (up 4ppts) expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. These increases have powered the index to its highest for nearly a year since October 2018 (163.0).
“Consumer Confidence is highly correlated to education level in Indonesia. The least educated Indonesians have clearly the lowest Consumer Confidence at more than 10% below the national average while their well educated counterparts are nearly 10% above the national average.
“This disparity has persisted for many years although when compared against international benchmarks Consumer Confidence is high for Indonesians of all education levels.
“Indonesian Consumer Confidence at 162.8 is now more than 50pts higher than in southern counterpart Australia (110.1) – the biggest gap between the two countries since June 2014. In addition the index is nearly 50pts higher than in New Zealand (118.2).
“Global trade tensions between the United States and China continue to add to fears that global growth over the years ahead may be curtailed. However the latest OECD growth projections for the G20 countries shows Indonesia (+5%) is one of only three countries expected to achieve growth of at least 3% in 2019 alongside India (+5.9%) and China (+6.1%).
“To get the most out of Roy Morgan’s in-depth research into the trends in the Indonesian economy and society subscribe to the Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source which is the largest consumer database in Indonesia covering more than 30 industries, 150 product categories and over 1,500 plus brands in the world’s fourth largest country.”
The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,280 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in August throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.
Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia September 21/22, 2019 – 110.1) and New Zealand (August 2019 – 118.2) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.
For further information:
Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400
Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables
- Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
- ANZ-Roy Morgan 2019 Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Monthly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (1973-2019)
- ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Results (Australia, New Zealand & Indonesia)
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
