ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.2 points to 94.6 as average petrol prices now down 40 cents per litre from peak
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased by 1.2pts to 94.6 this week after average petrol prices in Australia dropped by around 20 cents per litre last week to $1.74 per litre and are now down around 40 cents per litre since peaking in mid-March at $2.13 per litre.
Consumer Confidence has now increased for two straight weeks, however it is still a significant 19.5pts below the same week a year ago, April 10/11, 2021 (114.1) and the last time petrol prices were around the current level, at $1.77 per litre in the week to February 13, 2022, Consumer Confidence was significantly higher that week at 103.2.
Current financial conditions
- Now just 25% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 36% (down 2ppts), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to just 24% (down 1 ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
Current economic conditions
- Only 13% (up 1ppt), of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 28% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, just 16% (up 1ppt), of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Buying intentions are unchanged on a week ago with 32% (unchanged) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household while 40% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Consumer confidence rose by 1.3% last week, adding to the prior week’s gain of 2.5%, as petrol prices dropped sharply for a second straight week. Confidence remains below neutral and well below its long-run average. Household inflation expectations remained unchanged at 5.8%, despite lower petrol prices. With the terminal gate prices of petrol declining further last week, retail prices are likely to be even lower in the coming weeks. The flow-through of the reduction in petrol excise should provide additional impetus. This should lead to lower inflation expectations and, along with the Easter holidays, this is likely to boost sentiment. Among the states, confidence rose in NSW by 6.1%, after four straight weeks of decline. Confidence also rose in WA (10.4%), while it dropped in Victoria (-1.3%), Queensland (-0.2%) and SA (-10.7%).”
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
