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MORGAN POLL STATE VOTING INTENTION L-NP LEADS IN AUSTRALIA’S BIGGEST STATES: NSW: L-NP (61%) CF. ALP (39%); VICTORIA: L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%) & QUEENSLAND: LNP (62%) CF. ALP (38%)

The telephone Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted over the last two weeks on the nights of June 5/6 & 12/13 with a cross-section of 811 Australian electors in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.

A special telephone Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over the last two weeks shows the L-NP ahead in all three of Australia’s largest States: NSW: L-NP (61%) cf. ALP (39%); Victoria: L-NP (52%) cf. ALP (48%) and Queensland: LNP (62%) cf. ALP (38%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on the nights of June 5/6 & 12/13, 2012.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win a State Election easily

2PP: L-NP (61%, up 2.5% since a Morgan Poll in March 2012) cf. ALP (39%, down 2.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP (50%, up 1%); ALP (23.5%, down 1%), Greens (15%, up 2%), Independents/ Others (11.5%, down 2%).

Preferred Premier (Barry O’Farrell v John Robertson): Mr. O’Farrell (57.5%); Mr. Robertson (15.5%); Other/ Neither (27%). Lead to Mr. O’Farrell: 42%.

Approval of Job Performance — Premier (Barry O’Farrell): Approve (43%); Disapprove (35.5%); Can’t say (21.5%). Approve — Disapprove: +7.5%.

Approval of Job — Opposition Leader (John Robertson): Approve (26.5%); Disapprove (35%); Can’t say (38.5%). Approve — Disapprove: -8.5%.

FULL TABLES TO BE AVAILABLE HERE: /news/polls/2012/4794

 

VICTORIA: L-NP would win a close State Election

2PP: L-NP (52%, down 1% since a Morgan Poll in March 2012) cf. ALP (48%, up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP (44.5%, down 1%); ALP (33.5%, down 2%), Greens (15.5%, up 3%), Independents/ Others (6.5%, unchanged).

Preferred Premier (Ted Baillieu v Daniel Andrews): Mr. Baillieu (41%); Mr. Andrews (33.5%); Other/ Neither (25.5%). Lead to Mr. Baillieu: 7.5%.

Approval of Job Performance — Premier (Ted Baillieu): Approve (29%); Disapprove (53.5%); Can’t say (17.5%). Approve — Disapprove: -24.5%.

Approval of Job — Opposition Leader (Daniel Andrews): Approve (28%); Disapprove (35%); Can’t say (37%). Approve — Disapprove: -7%.

FULL TABLES TO BE AVAILABLE HERE: /news/polls/2012/4795

 

QUEENSLAND: LNP would win a State Election easily

2PP: LNP (62%, down 1.1% since the Queensland State Election on March 24, 2012) cf. ALP (38%, up 1.1%).

Primary vote: LNP (54.5%, up 4.8%), ALP (28%, up 1.3%), Greens (7.5%, unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party (3.5%, down 8%), Independents/ Others (6.5%, up 1.9%).

Preferred Premier (Campbell Newman v Annastacia Palaszczuk): Mr. Newman (67.5%); Ms. Palaszczuk (16%); Other/ Neither (16.5%). Lead to Mr. Newman: 51.5%.

Approval of Job Performance — Premier (Campbell Newman): Approve (53%); Disapprove (26.5%); Can’t say (20.5%). Approve — Disapprove: +26.5%.

Approval of Job — Opposition Leader (Annastacia Palaszczuk): Approve (26.5%); Disapprove (21%); Can’t say (52.5%). Approve — Disapprove: +5.5%.

FULL TABLES TO BE AVAILABLE HERE: /news/polls/2012/4796

 

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll shows the L-NP is clearly favoured in Australia’s three biggest States — New South Wales: L-NP (61%) cf. ALP (39%), Victoria L-NP (52%) cf. ALP (48%) & Queensland LNP (62%) cf. ALP (38%).

“The L-NP would easily win State elections held in New South Wales or Queensland, and would win a close State election in Victoria, the State in which it holds only a narrow lead.

“Both NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell (57.5%) cf. NSW Opposition Leader John Robertson (15.5%) and new Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (67.5%) cf. Queensland Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk (16%) are clearly preferred to their Labour Opposition Leaders, however Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu (41%) has only a small lead over Victorian Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews (33.5%).

“The differences between the Northern States and Victoria also shows up in the Job Approval ratings for the three Premiers. Both NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell (Approve: 43% cf. Disapprove: 35.5%) and Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (Approve: 53% cf. Disapprove: 26.5%) have positive job approval ratings, whilst a clear majority (53.5%) of Victorian electors disapprove of Premier Ted Baillieu’s performance compared to only 29% that approve — a clear worry for Premier Baillieu nearly half-way through his first four-year term as Premier.

“Another key finding of this special telephone Morgan Poll relates to the performance of the new Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) in Queensland which recorded a surprisingly high 11.5% at the recent Queensland State Election and won two seats. However, today’s Morgan Poll shows a large drop in support for the KAP (3.5%, down 8% since the Queensland State Election) with the largest beneficiary of the drop in support being Premier Campbell Newman’s LNP Government (54.5%, up 4.8%).”

 

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for the New South Wales/ Victoria/ Queensland were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

The telephone Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted over the last two weeks on the nights of June 5/6 & 12/13 with a cross-section of 811 Australian electors in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:              Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:           Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4