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ALP’s appeal to women likely to help Rudd in Federal Election by Michele Levine & Gary Morgan

Finding No. 5006 - This special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced, 8pm June 26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party.

This week’s snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted after the ALP Leadership ballot showed a strong swing to the ALP after Kevin Rudd’s return as leader – ALP (49.5%, up 5%) cf. L-NP (50.5%, down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows both genders swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. However, men have swung more heavily to the ALP than women after Julia Gillard lost her job.

Women now favour the ALP (51%, up 4%) cf. L-NP (49%, down 4%) on a two party preferred basis while despite a strong swing to the ALP men still favour the L-NP (52.5%, down 5.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%, up 5.5%).

In depth analysis of our last two Morgan Polls conducted before and after this week’s leadership change shows that despite the overall positive swing to the ALP after the leadership change, there was plenty of movement in voting preferences in all directions.

The ALP lost 23% of their support pre leadership change to other parties post leadership change – and this was mainly amongst women. 27% of women supporting the ALP switched their vote to other parties after Rudd returned to the leadership compared to only 17% of men.

However, this loss of support was more than made up for because supporters of other parties switched to the ALP after Rudd returned as leader: 14% of L-NP supporters switched to supporting the ALP; 27% of Greens supporters switched to the ALP and 38% of supporters of Independents and Others switched to supporting the ALP.

The resignations of key Independents Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor on the same day would also have been a factor in the lower vote attained by Independents/ Others in the snap SMS Morgan Poll.

Michele Levine says:

“The return of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister this week –three years and three days after Julia Gillard took his job – has provided a fresh impetus to the ALP as we head towards a Federal Election – still set for September 14, 2013.

“The last two Morgan Polls conducted just before and immediately after Rudd returned as ALP leader show both men and women swinging towards the ALP – however men swung more heavily. Men (ALP 47.5%, up 5.5%) cf. L-NP 52.5%, down 5.5%) compared to Women (ALP 51%, up 4% cf. L-NP 49%, down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“The important thing to realise when analysing these results is that the women who have changed their vote away from the ALP after the leadership change, are themselves committed ALP supporters. This is proven by their commitment to stick to the ALP despite a primary vote of only 30.5% pre-leadership change – indicating these women are ‘solid’ ALP supporters.

“As the ‘dust settles’ on the ALP leadership battle and Australia heads towards a Federal Election, it is likely many, if not a great majority, of these women will return to the ALP as the contest moves into a starker choice between the ALP and the L-NP, rather than this week’s internal ALP leadership battle.”

Finding No. 5006 - This special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced, 8pm June 26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093


Men

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,

2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

29.5

30.5

28.5

38

L-NP

48 (2)

47.5 (2.5)

50.5 (3)

45.5 (2)

Greens

8.5

7.5

8

6.5

Ind. /Other

14

14.5

13

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

41.5

43.5

42

47.5

L-NP

58.5

56.5

58

52.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,

2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

32.5

35

32.5

38

L-NP

44.5 (3)

42 (2)

44 (3)

41 (3)

Greens

10.5

10.5

10.5

10.5

Ind. /Other

12.5

12.5

13

10.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

46

50

47

51

L-NP

54

50

53

49

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0