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L-NP 54.5% (down 0.5%) lead down in a week over ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%) after Ford announces it is pulling out of Australia and Swan Services cleaning company closes its doors

Finding No. 4935 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, May 24-26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,493 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 1% (unchanged) did not name a party.
Last weekend’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP down 0.5% at 54.5% over the past week (since May 17-19, 2013) cf. ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 45.5% (unchanged) still well ahead of the ALP 33.5% (up 1.5%) the highest ALP primary vote since mid February. Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 11.5% (down 1%).

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, May 24-26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,493 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell to 97pts (down 5pts in a week) with 40% (down 4%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 43% (up 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Special Morgan Poll on Clive Palmer’s New Party

A special online Morgan Poll conducted last week shows there is a significant amount of potential support for Clive Palmer’s new political party – the Palmer United Party (PUP). When Australian electors were asked whether they would consider voting for Palmer’s new Party 16% said they would consider voting for PUP, 71% wouldn’t consider voting for PUP and 13% can’t say.

Analysis by gender shows that men (19%) are more likely to consider voting for PUP than women (13%). Analysis by Federal voting intention shows that 17% of Liberal supporters would consider voting for PUP and 34% of National supporters, compared to only 9% of ALP supporters and 12% of Greens supporters. However, a very high 59% of Katter’s Australian Party supporters would consider voting for Palmer’s new Party.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows another slight improvement for the Federal Government on a two-party preferred basis with the ALP (45.5%, up 0.5% in a week) narrowing the gap slightly on the L-NP (54.5%, down 0.5%). This gain for the Federal Government comes despite the news late last week of Ford Australia’s decision to close both of its manufacturing plants in Australia in three years’ time and the imminent closure of Swan Services – one of Australia’s largest cleaning companies with 2,500 people set to lose their jobs.

“The downsizing of Ford Australia and closure of Swan Services overshadowed last week’s announcement by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd that he now supports the rights of gay and lesbian Australians to get married. A special online Morgan Poll conducted with Australian electors over the last few days shows 65% of Australian electors support same-sex marriage compared to 35% that don’t support it. Clear support is evident across all States and is higher amongst Women (70% support gay marriage) than Men (59% support gay marriage).

“In addition, an overwhelming majority of Australians (79%) believe Members of Parliament (MPs) should be allowed a conscience vote on the issue compared to only 15% who say MPs should not be allowed a conscience vote and 6% who can’t say. The Marriage Equality Amendment Bill, proposed by sole Greens MP Adam Bandt, is due to be debated and voted on in Federal Parliament next week – Thursday June 6, 2013.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 4935 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, May 24-26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,493 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 1% (unchanged) did not name a party.

Morgan Poll - Two-Party Preferred

Roy Morgan GCR

Men

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May

3-5, 2013

May

10-12, 2013

May
17-19, 2013

May
24-26, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

29.5

30

31

31

L-NP

49.5 (4)

50 (4)

48 (2.5)

47.5 (3)

Greens

7.5

8

9

9.5

Ind. /Other

13.5

12

12

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

40.5

41

43.5

43.5

L-NP

59.5

59

56.5

56.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May

3-5, 2013

May

10-12, 2013

May
17-19, 2013

May
24-26, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

34.5

33.5

33.5

35.5

L-NP

43 (2.5)

43 (3)

43 (2.5)

44 (3)

Greens

9

10.5

11

9.5

Ind. /Other

13.5

13

12.5

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

47

47

46.5

47.5

L-NP

53

53

53.5

52.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

Data Tables

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1

Morgan Poll Accuracy - Recent Elections State & Federal (2007 — 2012)

The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: "I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any 'real' figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from 'reality' (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is 'better' than Morgan's."


The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.