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New car intentions gaining momentum

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – February 2015, n=660,542 (average quarterly sample = 13,445)

The number of potential new car buyers in Australia continues to rise, with the latest figures from Roy Morgan Research revealing that 2,378,000 people are planning to buy a new car in the next four years, an additional 129,000 units since last month, and up on the same time last year.

Short term intention has also risen. Motorists intending to buy a new car in the next 12 months now number 598,000, an increase from 537,000 last month and slightly more than the same time last year.

New car buying intentions

early-indicators-chart

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – February 2015, n=660,542 (average quarterly sample = 13,445)

Jordan Pakes, Industry Director -- Automotive, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“2015 has started on a positive note for the automotive market, with signs of recovery after a several months of declining new car intentions over the back end of 2014. The figures for February consolidate on this turnaround, with the number of Australians in the market for a new car continuing to increase. This strong February result also coincided with a bumper sales result according to VFACTS, with the market selling 90,424 units – an increase of 4.2% compared to February 2014.

“Although consumer confidence hit a six-month low in mid-February (despite comparatively lower petrol prices and an interest rate reduction by the RBA) this didn’t seem to dampen the spirits of Australia’s new car intenders. 

“Since the beginning of the year, new car intention has increased for most automotive brands, with local makes Ford and Holden gaining 36,000 and 25,000 additional intenders respectively. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues following the Federal Government’s recent decision to reinstate some of the funding it slashed from the local automotive industry last year…”

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2