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The Australian electorate is considering voting for three new fringe parties – with Wikileaks ahead of Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party

Finding No. 4956 - This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last few days via telephone interviewing, June 4-6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 546 Australian electors aged 18+.

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last few nights shows that the Wikileaks Party has the largest amount of potential support with 21% of Australian electors saying they would consider voting for Julian Assange’s new party; 16% say they’d consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party and 16% the Palmer United Party heading into this year’s Federal Election.

Australian electors were asked whether they would consider voting for each of the new political parties at this year’s Federal Election – although the Wikileaks Party only plans to stand candidates for the Senate in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Analysis of the results by Federal voting intention shows that potential support for the new parties is highest amongst Greens supporters of whom 44% would consider voting for Wikileaks; 20% would consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party and 15% would consider voting for the Palmer United Party.

Of the major parties, up to 26% ALP supporters would consider voting for Wikileaks, far higher than the 11% of L-NP supporters that would, while 11% of both ALP and L-NP supporters would consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party. However more L-NP supporters (15%) would consider voting for the Palmer United Party than ALP supporters (9%).

Analysis by Capital Cities/ Country

Analysis of the results by Capital Cities/ Country shows that potential support for Wikileaks is clearly higher in the Capital Cities (24%) than the Country (17%), while the situation is reversed for the other two parties. Katter’s Australian Party has potential support of 23% in the Country and only 12% potential support in the Capital Cities whilst the Palmer United Party is more evenly split between the two with potential Country support of 18% and Capital City support of 15%.

Analysis by State

Analysis by State shows potential support for the Wikileaks Party is strongest in Victoria (27%) – the State in which Wikileaks Party leader Julian Assange has announced he will run for the Senate, ahead of Tasmania (26%), Queensland and South Australia (both 21%), New South Wales (18%) and has its weakest potential support in Western Australia (16%).

Potential support for Katter’s Australian Party is, unsurprisingly, strongest in Bob Katter’s home State of Queensland (27%), ahead of Tasmania (22%), Western Australia (19%), South Australia (15%), New South Wales (13%) and has its weakest potential support in Victoria (11%).

The Palmer United Party also has the strongest potential support in Queensland (25%), Clive Palmer’s home State, ahead of Tasmania (20%), Victoria (15%), Western Australia and South Australia (13% each) and has its weakest potential support in New South Wales (12%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Wikileaks has stronger potential support amongst females (23%) than males (20%), although potential male support is higher for both Katter’s Australian Party (19%) and the Palmer United Party (19%) than the potential female support for these parties: Katter’s Australian Party (12%) and Palmer United Party (13%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This year’s Federal Election sees the launch of three new political parties onto the Australian political landscape. Each political party is targeting clearly different demographic segments and today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows that all have some chance of securing representation in Australia’s Federal Parliament.

“The Wikileaks Party founded by Wikileaks creator Julian Assange, is only running candidates for the Senate in three States – Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia, but it has the highest potential nationwide support of 21%. Importantly for Wikileaks, Victoria is the State where it has the highest potential support (27%) and is where Assange plans to run for the Senate.

“The new parties present the greatest obvious threat to the Greens; of which 44% would consider voting for Wikileaks; 20% Katter’s Australian Party and 15% the Palmer United Party. However, the ALP can ‘ill afford’ to lose up to 26% of its support to Assange’s Wikileaks; 11% to Katter or 9% to Palmer.

“The L-NP is least likely to be effected by these new parties – either in terms of the % of L-NP voters considering Wikileaks (11%); Katter’s Australian Party (11%) and the Palmer United Party (15%); and because it is likely the Katter and Palmer preferences will flow back to the L-NP anyway.

“Nationwide, potential support for Katter’s Australian Party (16%) and the Palmer United Party (16%) is slightly lower than for Wikileaks, but potential support in the home State of the party founders – Queensland – is considerably higher. 27% of Queenslanders would consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party and 25% of Queenslanders would consider voting for the Palmer United Party. If this level of support carried through to the Federal Election both parties would stand a good chance of having several candidates elected.”


Finding No. 4956 - This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last few days via telephone interviewing, June 4-6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 546 Australian electors aged 18+.

Electors were asked about the three new parties and whether they would consider voting for them:

“Well-known mining identity Clive Palmer has launched a new political party, the Palmer United Party (PUP). Would you consider voting for the Palmer United Party at this year's Federal Election?”

“Independent Queensland MP Bob Katter has launched a new political party, Katter's Australian Party (KAP). Would you consider voting for Katter’s Australian Party at this year's Federal Election?”

“Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has announced that his new Wikileaks Party will run several candidates for the Australian Senate at this year's Federal Election. Would you consider voting for the Wikileaks Party in the Senate at this year's Federal Election?”

 

ALL THREE PARTIES

 

Wikileaks

KAP

PUP

 

%

%

%

Yes

21

16

16

No

73

75

75

Can’t say

6

9

9

TOTAL

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:     

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093



NEW PARTIES BY FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION

As with all Roy Morgan surveys Federal voting intention was asked. Based on a sample of 546 electors this telephone Morgan Poll showed the L-NP (59%) cf. ALP (41%) on a two-party preferred basis. The primary vote showed the L-NP (49%), ALP (29%), Greens (11%) and Independent/ Others (11%).

This result is fairly similar to last weekend’s telephone Newspoll which showed the L-NP (58%) cf. ALP (42%) on a two-party preferred basis and primary voting intention of L-NP (49%), ALP (30%), Greens (9%) and Independent/ Others (12%).

Both the telephone Morgan Poll and telephone Newspoll recorded a higher L-NP vote than recorded in last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll of 3,276 Australian electors which showed the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%). Primary voting intention of L-NP (45.5%), ALP (31.5%), Greens (9.5%) and Independent/ Others (13.5%). It is well-known that telephone polls produce a higher result for the party ‘expected to win’ Government – now the Coalition!

 

WIKILEAKS – By Federal Voting Intention

 

TOTAL

Federal Voting Intention

 

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Ind/ Others#

Can’t say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

21

26

11

44

29

18

No

73

69

86

50

67

42

Can’t say

6

5

3

6

4

40

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY (KAP) – By Federal Voting Intention 

 

TOTAL

Federal Voting Intention

 

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Ind/ Others#

Can’t say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

16

11

11

20

32

24

No

75

79

84

70

50

37

Can’t say

9

10

5

10

18

39

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

PALMER UNITED PARTY (PUP) – By Federal Voting Intention 

 

TOTAL

Federal Voting Intention

 

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Ind/ Others#

Can’t say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

16

9

15

15

27

14

No

75

82

79

73

64

35

Can’t say

9

9

6

12

9

51

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.


NEW PARTIES BY CAPITAL CITY/ COUNTRY

WIKILEAKS – By Capital City/ Country

 

TOTAL

Capital Cities

Country

 

%

%

%

Yes

21

24

17

No

73

72

76

Can’t say

6

4

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY (KAP) – By Capital City/ Country

 

TOTAL

Capital Cities

Country

 

%

%

%

Yes

16

12

23

No

75

78

70

Can’t say

9

10

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

PALMER UNITED PARTY (PUP) – By Capital City/ Country

 

TOTAL

Capital Cities

Country

 

%

%

%

Yes

16

15

18

No

75

75

75

Can’t say

9

10

7

TOTAL

100

100

100


NEW PARTIES BY STATE

WIKILEAKS – By State

 

TOTAL

State

 

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

21

18

27

21

16

21

26

No

73

78

69

72

76

73

67

Can’t say

6

4

4

7

8

6

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.


KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY (KAP) – By State 

 

TOTAL

State

 

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

16

13

11

27

19

15

22

No

75

76

78

71

71

71

60

Can’t say

9

11

11

2

10

14

18

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

PALMER UNITED PARTY (PUP) – By State 

 

TOTAL

State

 

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

16

12

15

25

13

13

20

No

75

78

75

71

74

70

61

Can’t say

9

10

10

4

13

17

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

NEW PARTIES BY GENDER & AGE

WIKILEAKS – By Gender & Age

 

TOTAL

Gender

Age

 

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

21

20

23

32

21

14

18

No

73

76

71

57

77

82

77

Can’t say

6

4

6

11

2

4

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY (KAP) – By Gender & Age

 

TOTAL

Gender

Age

 

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

16

19

12

22

17

10

14

No

75

74

76

57

76

87

81

Can’t say

9

7

12

21

7

3

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

PALMER UNITED PARTY (PUP) – By Gender & Age

 

TOTAL

Gender

Age

 

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

16

19

13

21

17

11

15

No

75

72

77

57

76

84

83

Can’t say

9

9

10

22

7

5

2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

Morgan Poll Accuracy — Recent Elections State & Federal (2007-12)

The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election.

 

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2010 Federal Election for the primary vote and clearly second-most accurate for the two-party preferred predictions (sample 1,872 electors).

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

 

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”