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COMPANY ONLINE STORE PRODUCTS SERVICES INDUSTRIES MORGAN POLL PAPERS PRESS RELEASES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READERSHIP UNEMPLOYMENT THE REACTOR CAREERS 
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Big Swing Back to L-NP With War in Iraq
The L-NP would have won a Federal election if it had been held after the Iraq war began on March 22, 23, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Primary support for the L-NP was up 6% to 45.5% with the ALP down 3.5% to 36%. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was down 1.5% to 9.5%, support for the Australian Democrats was 3%, One Nation 1% and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates was down 1.5% to 4.5%. On a two-party preferred basis L-NP support was up 6% to 52.5% (1.5% higher than the L-NP obtained at the November 2001 election), while ALP support was 47.5%. The Coalition of US, UK and Australian forces invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003. Gary Morgan says:
"The poll was taken immediately after the invasion of Iraq by US, UK and Australian forces when there was positive publicity on the successes of the military Coalition. This resulted in a majority of Australians (50.5% - up 4% in five days) approving of Australians being part of the American forces to depose of Saddam Hussein. Since then, the public has been made aware that the war may be longer and involve the US sending more troops, which may erode the L-NP Coalition's initial support."
Over the two weekends, preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP – 60.5% cf L-NP – 39.5%) and the Greens (ALP – 78.5% cf L-NP – 21.5%) and One Nation (ALP 59% cf L-NP – 41%) favoured the ALP. Preference of supporters of Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP – 52% cf ALP – 48%) favoured the L-NP Government. This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 15/16 (1,014 electors) & March 22/23 (1,113 electors), with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,127 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today – which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5% (unchanged) on March 15/16 and 4.5% (down 0.5%) on March 22/23 did not name a party. For further information: Gary Morgan Office: (03) 9224 5213 Home: (03) 9419 3242 Mobile: 0411 129 094
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Finding No. 3617 is taken from Computer Report No. 1872 Accuracy of the Morgan Poll Gary Morgan says: "Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks." November 10, 2001 Election Day poll The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston Bi-election, the Ryan Bi-election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details. Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001 Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001 South Australian State Election February 9, 2002 The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.
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