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QLD: Queensland ALP Maintain Strong Lead

Finding No. 3613 - April 03, 2003

During January – February support for the ALP in Queensland was up 2% to 53%. Support for the Liberal Party was down 1% to 22% and National Party support was 9.5% (up 0.5%). If a Queensland election had been held during January or February the ALP would still have won by a landslide, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 2.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 1%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6.5% (down 0.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was up 0.5% to 61% while L-NP was down 0.5% to 39%.

During the polling period:

A year out from the Queensland State election, Premier Beattie pressed on with the aim to turn Queensland into the `Smart State'.
New data revealed in a report by the Queensland Natural Resources Department showed that clearing of bushland in Queensland has accelerated, with 1.1 million hectares bulldozed in two years, a rate exceeded only by a handful of Third World developing nations.

Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP – 59% cf L-NP – 41%) and the Greens (ALP – 73.5% cf L-NP – 26.5%) favoured the ALP Government. Supporters of One Nation (L-NP – 74.5% cf ALP – 25.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP – 57.5% cf ALP – 42.5%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Queensland State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,541 electors throughout Queensland on the weekends of January and February 2003. Electors were asked: "If a State election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (up 0.5%) were undecided on voting intention.

For further information:

Norman Woodcock Office: (03) 9224 5236

Rosie Goldup Office: (03) 9224 5157 Mobile: 0407 294 952

QUEENSLAND STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Liberal	National	One Nation	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	Ind./ Other
Election June 13, 1998	38.9	31.3	16.1	15.2	22.7	1.6	2.3	3.2
Election February 17, 2001	48.9	28.5	14.3	14.2	8.7	0.3	2.5	11.1
MORGAN POLL
July - August, 2002	57.5	29.5	21	8.5	2	2.5	3	5.5
September - October, 2002	53.5	31	22	8.5	2.5	1.5	5	6.5
November - December, 2002	51	32	23	9	2	2.5	5.5	7
January - February, 2003	53	31.5	22	9.5	2.5	1.5	5	6.5

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

	ALP	L-NP
MORGAN POLL
July-August, 2002	65	35
September - October, 2002	62.5	37.5
November - December, 2002	60.5	39.5
January - February, 2003	61	39
Note: The Electoral Commission of Queensland has not released a two-Party preferred vote.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	Jul - Aug 2002		Sept - Oct 2002		Nov - Dec 2002		Jan - Feb 2003
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP

One Nation ##	21.5	78.5	57	43	51.5	48.5	25.5	74.5
Australian Democrats ##	78.5	21.5	56.5	43.5	69.5	30.5	59	41
The Greens	67.5	32.5	76.5	23.5	70.5	29.5	73.5	26.5
Independent/Other	44	56	47	53	39.5	60.5	42.5	57.5
## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution. Sample: 1,541 electors Interviewed: January - February 2003 4.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Finding No. 3613 is taken from Computer Report No. 1871

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.