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SA: ALP Well Ahead in South Australia

Finding No. 3611 - April 03, 2003

In January – February primary support for the ALP Government was up 2.5% to 49% while support for the Liberal Party was down 5.5% to 31. If a South Australian election had been held in January or February the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Support for the Greens rose 1.5% to 6% while Australian Democrats support was up 2.5% to 7%. Among the other minor parties, support for Family First was 2% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 4.5% (unchanged).

On a two-party preferred basis ALP support was up 4% to 60.5% while Liberal support was 39.5%.

During the period of the poll:

South Australian MP Kris Hanna resigned from the Labor Party and joined the Greens, giving the Greens its first representative in the SA Parliament.
Fires lit by refugees at the Woomera detention centre caused about $2.5 million damage. In a separate incident, six asylum seekers were helped to escape from the detention centre in a violent breakout in which guards were attacked with tyre levers.
As the Federal Government was set to give the final go-ahead to a low-level nuclear waste dump in outback South Australia, South Australian Premier Mike Rann pushed for bipartisan support for his legislation to ban the transportation of radioactive waste across the State and prevent the establishment of the dump. Mr Rann said that Australia could miss out on "many millions of dollars" in space science and technology work if a nuclear waste dump was established at Woomera.

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP – 80% cf Lib. – 20%), One Nation Party (ALP – 76.5% cf ALP – 23.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (ALP – 53.5% cf Lib. – 46.5%), favoured the South Australian Government. Supporters of the Australian Democrats (Lib. – 51% cf ALP – 49%) and Family First (Lib 66% cf ALP 34%) favoured the opposition.

This Morgan Poll on South Australian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 655 electors throughout South Australia during the months of January – February 2003. Electors were asked: "If a State Election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Norman Woodcock Office: (03) 9224 5236

Rosie Goldup Office: (03) 9224 5157 Mobile: 0407 294 952

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	Liberal	ALP	Aust. Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	S.A. First#†	Family First^	Ind./ Others#*
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Election February 9, 2002	40	36.3	7.5	2.4	2.4	1.8	2.6	7
MORGAN POLL
July - August 2002	32.5	49	4.5	5.5	0.5	1	2	5
September - October 2002	32	47	5.5	7	1	0.5	2.5	4.5
November - December 2002	36.5	46.5	4.5	4.5	1	0.5	2	4.5
January - February 2003	31	49	7	6	0.5	-	2	4.5
* Includes votes for the National Party † The South Australia First Party was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000 and removed in January 2003. # Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution. ^ Family First was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	ALP	Liberal
	%	%
Election February 9, 2002	49.1	50.9
MORGAN POLL
July - August 2002	59.5	40.5
September - October 2002	60	40
November - December 2002	56.5	43.5
January - February 2003	60.5	39.5

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	July-Aug 2002		Sept-Oct 2002		Nov - Dec 2002		Jan - Feb 2003
MORGAN POLL	ALP	Lib.	ALP	Lib.	ALP	Lib.	ALP	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australian Democrats##	46	54	63.5	36.5	72.5	27.5	49	51
The Greens ##	79.5	20.5	82	18	86.5	13.5	80	20
One Nation ##	73	27	63.5	36.5	19	81	76.5	23.5
Independent/Other ##	54.5	45.5	43	57	40.5	59.5	53.5	46.5
Family First##	30	70	47	53	43.5	56.5	34	66
## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution. Sample: 655 electors Interviewed: January - February, 2003. 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Finding No. 3611 is taken from Computer Report No. 1869

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.