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If a Federal election had been held on April 5/6, the ALP would have won on minor party preferences, the latest Morgan Poll finds. At a time soon after the ALP's large win in the NSW State election, with the war in Iraq moving into its third week and uncertainty remaining about how long the battle would continue, primary support for the Federal ALP was up 6% to 42% with the L-NP down 5.5% to 40%.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 3% (unchanged), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent 4.5% (unchanged).

On a two-party preferred basis, ALP support was up 6.5% to 54%, while LNP support was down 6.5% to 46%.

During the polling period:

• The war in Iraq continued, with Coalition forces receiving more resistance than had been expected. The US forces fought for control of Baghdad International Airport resulting in hundreds of casualties.

Gary Morgan says:

"As mentioned in the last Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention (see Finding No. 3617), the L-NP's initial support after the first few days of fighting in Iraq eroded as the Coalition forces received more resistance than had been expected.

"Preferences of the minor parties, which are vital in determining the outcome of an election, favoured the ALP. Supporters of the Greens, the Democrats and Other Parties and Independent Candidates all favoured the ALP, with only supporters of One Nation split.

"This decrease in support for the Government is similar to the decrease in support for the war experienced in the US at around this time (as shown ABC News/Washington Post Polls, see http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/Primetime/baghdadpoll_030410.html).

"Baghdad has now fallen and Saddam Hussein's regime is at an end. With relatively few casualties in taking Baghdad and other major cities and without the prospect of a long, drawn-out battle, voting intention is likely to swing back to the L-NP Government. This volatile voting behaviour is typical during times of international crisis with significant media coverage."

Over the weekend, preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP – 54% cf L-NP – 46%), Greens (ALP – 83.5% cf L-NP – 16.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP – 54% cf L-NP – 46%) favoured the ALP. Preference of supporters of One Nation (L-NP – 51% cf ALP – 49%) favoured the L-NP Government.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 5,6 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,257 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today – which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 0.5%`) did not name a party.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Finding No. 3620 is taken from Computer Report No. 1874

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

Accuracy of the Morgan Poll

Gary Morgan says:

"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."

November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding No 3476

The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.

Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding No 3422

Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding No 3392

South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding No 3503

The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.

# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.

Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding No 3583

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