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If a Federal election had been held last weekend (April 19/20), the L-NP would have been returned with about the same margin as in the last Federal election, the latest Morgan Poll finds. With the success of the Coalition forces (USA, UK & Australia) in Iraq, and speculation about the ALP's leadership increasing, primary support for the Federal L-NP was up 4.5% in two weeks to 44.5% with the ALP down to 35.5%.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 10%, Australian Democrats 4.5%, One Nation 1.5% and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4%.

On a two-party preferred basis, L-NP support was up 3% to 49% after the fall of Baghdad followed by a further rise of 2% to 51% after the fall of Tikrit and the end to the War in Iraq. ALP support was down 3% to 51% after the fall of Baghdad followed by a fall of 2% to 49% after the end to the war. Last weekend (April 19/20) the L-NP margin was the same as in the 2001 Federal election.

During the polling period:

• The military campaign in Iraq drew to a successful close for Coalition forces, although the considerable challenge of how Iraq should now be run still continues.

• Speculation increased about the Federal ALP leadership. Former leader Kim Beazley stated that he would not challenge Simon Crean for the job.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents give their reason for voting showed that there is respect amongst electors for Mr Howard's performance as Prime Minister, with L-NP supporters commenting on his courage and ability to stand by his convictions.

This is in direct contrast with the electorate's concerns about Opposition Leader Mr Crean, who is seen as indecisive and lacking in strength (see Finding No. 3621)

Other reasons for voting L-NP

Other L-NP supporters mentioned the Party's decisiveness and stability as reasons for voting L-NP. They praised the L-NP's stance on the war, economic management and other policies in general.

Some supporters of the L-NP Coalition did not see a need to change the current Government, either because they were happy with the Government's track record or because they saw a need for stability in an international climate of uncertainty.

The ALP's perceived weakness and lack of leadership came under attack by some L-NP supporters, who simply saw no alternative but to vote for the Coalition.

Reasons for voting ALP

Not surprisingly, a number of ALP supporters commented specifically on giving their support to the ALP because of the war in Iraq, either in favour of the ALP stance or against the L-NP stance on the conflict.

However, the general mood amongst ALP supporters was a heightened awareness of, and desire for, the positive social policies that the ALP is traditionally known for.

Other supporters felt that the ALP was more in touch with Australians and had better policies in general.

Some supporters of the ALP were simply dissatisfied with John Howard and the current Government's policies.

Gary Morgan says:

"Support for Mr Howard and the L-NP has increased steadily over the last two weeks - up 3% after the fall of Baghdad and a further 2% following the Coalition's success in Iraq. While the political agenda is international, Mr Howard is well positioned to win a Federal election now.

"The recent Morgan Poll in marginal L-NP seats (see Finding No. 3621) shows Mr Howard is easily the preferred Prime Minister (71%) in marginal L-NP seats with a 65% approval rating.

"Roy Morgan Qualitative Research shows Mr Howard's present standing with the Australian electorate is that of a strong, decisive leader who is not afraid to make the hard decisions.

"Mr Howard is now in a particularly good position to handle Australia's international problems such as the increasing SARS crisis (which is having a devastating impact on world tourism) and progressing the US free-trade agreement with Australia. However, up until now Mr Howard has had difficulty in implementing the L-NP Coalition election promises.

"With the successful outcome of the War in Iraq and continual in-fighting in the ALP over who should be their leader, there will never be a better opportunity for Mr Howard to "trigger" a double dissolution of Federal Parliament with the aim of passing all his proposed legislation (workplace reform, changing the unfair dismissal laws, media ownership, sale of Telstra, changes to the Trade Practices Act, etc). "

Over the two weekends, preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP – 62.5% cf L-NP – 37.5%), Greens (ALP – 82% cf L-NP – 18%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP – 58.5% cf L-NP – 41.5%) and One Nation (ALP – 52.5% cf L-NP – 47.5%) all favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 12/13 (1,015 electors) and April 19/20 (784 electors) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,799 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today – which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5% (unchanged) on April 12/13 and 4.5% (down 0.5%) on April 19/20 did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan    Mobile: 0411 129 094    Office: (03) 9224 5213    Home: (03) 9419 3242

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

Accuracy of the Morgan Poll

Gary Morgan says:

"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."

November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding No 3476

The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.

Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding No 3422

Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding No 3392

South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding No 3503

The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.

# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.

Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding No 3583

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