Federal Election Would Now Be Too Close to Call
| Finding No. 3630 -
May 09, 2003 |
If a Federal election had been in late April or early May it would have been too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Primary support for the ALP was up 2.5% to 38% while support for the L-NP was down 0.5% to 44%. On a two-party preferred basis, ALP support was up 1% to 50% while L-NP support was down 1% to 50%.
Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (down 2%), Australian Democrats 3.5% (down 1%), One Nation 1.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (up 1%).
During the polling period:
-
Former ALP leader Kim Beazley refused to rule out a challenge to current leader Simon Crean, sharply increasing the prospects of a leadership change. Mr Crean declared that Mr Beazley should challenge or withdraw. Other senior Labor MPs said the leadership row needed to be resolved before it damaged the party. In late April, the Morgan Poll found that amongst electors in marginal L-NP seats, Mr Beazley was the clear favourite for Labor leader with 46% of electors preferring him. Only 13% of electors in Coalition marginal seats preferred Mr Crean as Labor leader (for the full story, see Finding No. 3621 on www.roymorgan.com). - The Federal Government announced a $917 million package in Medicare reforms to increase the availability of bulk-billing and boost doctor numbers in the bush. Federal Opposition Leader Simon Crean said Australia's health system was being Americanised by the Howard Government under the proposed Medicare reforms and vowed that Labor will block the package in the Senate and fight to restore bulk billing and save Medicare if it wins the next election.
- Pan Pharmaceuticals, which produces 70 per cent of Australian herbal and over-the-counter medicines, was stripped of its licence by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) for six months. Prime Minister John Howard urged the public not to panic as he defended the TGA amid criticism it was slow to act. Opposition Leader Simon Crean said Mr Howard had indicated he knew of problems with Pan before yesterday's recall and should have revealed the health risks posed by Pan sooner.
- The report of an independent inquiry initiated by the Brisbane Anglican Diocese said that former Anglican Archbishop and now Governor-General Peter Hollingworth allowed a priest to continue his ministry despite knowing he was a child abuser. Labor, the Democrats and child protection advocates called on Dr Hollingworth to resign but Prime Minister Howard said that he would not sack the Governor-General, saying that the report had not found any deliberate misconduct.
Over the two weekends, preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP – 55.5% cf ALP – 44.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP – 54.5% cf ALP – 45.5%) favoured the Coalition Government. Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP – 77% cf L-NP – 23%), Greens (ALP – 84.5% cf L-NP – 15.5%) favoured the Opposition.
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 26/27 and May 3/4, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,271 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today – which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
Michele Levine Office: (03) 9224 5215 Mobile: 0411 129 093
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| March 22/23 |
45.5 (3) |
36 |
3 |
9.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| April 5/6 |
40 (3.5) |
42 |
3 |
9 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| April 12/13 |
43 (4) |
39 |
3.5 |
10 |
0.5 |
4 |
| April 19/20 |
44.5 (3) |
35.5 |
4.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
4 |
| April 26/27 & May 3/4 |
44 (2) |
38 |
3.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
5 |
| Note: National Party results are in brackets
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| March 22/23 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| April 5/6 |
46 |
54 |
| April 12/13 |
49 |
51 |
| April 19/20 |
51 |
49 |
| April 26/27 & May 3/4 |
50 |
50 |
| 1 For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0% |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
March 15/16
& March 22/23 |
April 5/6 |
April 12/13
& April 19/20 |
April 26/27
& May 3/4 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats |
39.5 |
60.5 |
46 |
54 |
37.5 |
62.5 |
23 |
77 |
| The Greens |
21.5 |
78.5 |
16.5 |
83.5 |
18 |
82 |
15.5 |
84.5 |
| One Nation |
41 |
59 |
51 |
49 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
| Independent/Other |
52 |
48 |
46 |
54 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
Sample: 2,271 electors interviewed face-to-face on April 26/27 & May 3/4, 2003.
5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party. |
Finding No. 3630 is taken from Computer Report No. 1879
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.
|
