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If a Federal election had been held in mid-May it would have been too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds. In a fortnight that saw the Federal Budget handed down and the Governor-General Dr Peter Hollingworth stand aside, primary support for the ALP was up 1% to 39% while support for the L-NP was down 0.5% to 43.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, ALP support was unchanged at 50% while L-NP support was also unchanged at 50%.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 3% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (unchanged).

• Treasurer Peter Costello delivered the Federal Government's Budget. Mr Costello said that the Budget's priorities were to maintain a surplus, and to invest in defence, security, education and health. Included in the Budget were $2.4 billion in tax cuts, an upgrading of domestic security arrangements, measures designed to deregulate the higher education system, and funding for the already announced Medicare package.

• In his response to the Budget, Opposition Leader Simon Crean announced the ALP's promise to revive Medicare with a $1.9 billion plan to persuade more doctors to bulk-bill patients and a crackdown on corporate perks. The Budget reply also promised a Labor government would give unspecified tax cuts, abolish tax breaks for large executive payouts, save the Murray River, oppose university fee rises and impose tighter rules to stop potential child sex abusers.

• Former Opposition Leader Kim Beazley described Mr Crean's Budget response as very good, but renewed media speculation when he said that his position on the leadership was unchanged.

• Governor-General Peter Hollingworth stood aside while claims that he raped a woman in Bendigo 40 years ago are dealt with in court. Labor and the Democrats said Dr Hollingworth should have been forced to resign over the unrelated matter of his handling of child sex abuse compliants when he was Brisbane's Anglican Archbishop in the 1990s. Mr Howard said there were no grounds for him to sack Dr Hollingworth and that he had not asked him to resign.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on on May 10 and 11. Typical reasons for voting Liberal included "I like their economic responsibility", "Happy with their performance" and "The opposition parties are not up to it at the moment". More specific responses focused on satisfaction with John Howard's leadership at a time when difficult decisions had to be made and the perceived lack of stability in the Labor Party. Responses included, "Respect Howard's decisiveness and his resolve", "Very supportive of what PM Howard has been doing. He has been leading the country. He stands by his decisions", "The Opposition fight and squabble amongst themselves" and "The Labor Party seems to be in disarray at the moment, due to leadership issues and lack of policies."

Typical reasons for voting ALP included "I always vote that way", "I like their social policies" and "They represent my values". More specific responses focused on the perceived care of the ALP for the community and dissatisfaction with John Howard and the Coalition Government. Some responses included, "They care for the community more than other parties", "They look after normal people not money", "We need a change from the puppet - he's an American puppet" and "Not satisfied with the Coalition Government."

Over the two weekends, preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP – 53% cf ALP – 47%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP – 53% cf ALP – 47%) favoured the Coalition Government. Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP – 73% cf L-NP – 27%) and the Greens (ALP – 80.5% cf L-NP – 19.5%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of May 10/11 and May 17/18, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,053 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today – which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

In a separate telephone survey conducted amongst electors on May 20-22, a week after the delivery of the Federal Budget, respondents were asked: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?"

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Australian electors approved of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister. This is an increase of 9% since March 24-25, when 56% of electors approved of the way Mr Howard was handling his job after a week of war in Iraq. In September 2002, when there was a high level of debate about whether Australia should support US President George W Bush's proposed military action against Iraq, 52% of electors approved of the way Mr Howard was handling his job as Prime Minister.

On May 20-22, 30% (down 10%) disapproved of the way Mr Howard was handling his job as Prime Minister, while 5% (down 1%) remained undecided.

The way          Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister	Sep 15-17    2002	Mar 24-25    2003	May 20-22    2003
	%	%	%
Approve	52	56	65
Disapprove	40	40	30
Can't Say	8	4	5
Total	100	100	100

Not surprisingly, the vast majority (96%) of L-NP Coalition supporters approved of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister, while only 38% of ALP supporters approved, 53% disapproved and 9% couldn't say.

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	65	96	38	49	15	57	60
Disapprove	30	3	53	45	83	36	21
Can’t say	5	1	9	6	2	7	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Respondents of the May 20-22 telephone survey were then asked: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Crean is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?"

In stark contrast with Mr Howard's high approval rating, only 26% of electors approved of the way Mr Crean is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition. This is 4% lower than in September 2002, when Australia was debating possible military action against Iraq.

In May, 63% (25% more than in September 2002) disapproved of the way Mr Crean is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition, while 11% remained undecided.

The way          Mr Crean is handling his job as Opposition Leader	Sep 15-17    2002	May 20-22    2003
	%	%
Approve	30	26
Disapprove	38	63
Can't Say	32	11
Total	100	100

Greatest approval of Mr Crean came from ALP supporters (38%), however in what must be a concern to the ALP, more supporters (46%) disapproved of his performance. Large majorities of supporters of all other parties disapproved of Mr Crean's performance as Opposition Leader.

Respondents of the May 20-22 telephone survey were also asked: "Thinking of both Mr Howard and Mr Crean. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister - Mr Howard or Mr Crean?"

The majority (71%) of Australian electors believed that Mr Howard was the better Prime Minister, up 14% since September 2002. Only 19% (down 6%) preferred Mr Crean as Prime Minister, with 10% (down 8%) saying someone else or being unable to say.

Better Prime Minister	Sep 15-17    2003	May 20-22    2003
	%	%
Howard	57	71
Crean	25	19
Other/ Can't Say	18	10
Total	100	100

Mr Howard was the preferred Prime Minister by the majority of supporters of the L-NP (97%), Australian Democrats (68%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (67%). More ALP supporters (47%) preferred Mr Howard than preferred Mr Crean (40%) as Prime Minister. Supporters of the Greens were more likely to prefer Mr Crean (42%) than Mr Howard (27%).

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	71	97	47	68	27	67	58
Crean	19	1	40	11	42	20	11
Other/ can’t say	10	2	13	21	31	13	31
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

This Morgan Poll on Political Leaders was conducted by telephone on May 20-22, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 482 electors.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Finding No. 3633 is taken from Computer Report No. 1883

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

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