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L-NP (51%) just ahead of ALP (49%) after first week of new Parliament

Finding No. 5306 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 16/17, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,005 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

On a two-party preferred basis the L-NP is 51%, up 1% since the Morgan Poll of November 2/3, 2013. ALP support is 49%, down 1%. If an election were held now the result would be a narrow L-NP victory according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted last weekend (November 16/17, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,005 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 42.5% (up 1%) well ahead of the ALP primary vote at 32.5% (down 2.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 11% (up 0.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 9% (up 1.5%). Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (11%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows this week’s rise in support for the L-NP has come from women with the L-NP (49.5%, up 2% since November 2/3, 2013) now just behind the ALP (50.5%, down 2%) amongst women on a two party preferred basis. However, support amongst men for the two major parties is unchanged with men still favouring the L-NP 52.5% (unchanged) cf. ALP 47.5% (unchanged).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 116, up 1.5pts since November 2/3, 2013. Now 48.5% (up 3%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 32.5% (up 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (51%, up 1% over the past two weeks) has opened a slight lead over the ALP (49%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first week of the new Parliament. Veteran Liberal Bronwyn Bishop was installed as the new Parliament’s Speaker and immediately found herself in a controversial situation by allowing Leader of the House Christopher Pyne to refer to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as ‘Electricity Bill’. The convention is to refer to MPs by their official titles only.

“Additionally, two important pieces of Government legislation – the repeal of the Carbon Tax and the bill to increase Australia’s debt ceiling from $300 billion to $500 billion – have been opposed in the Senate by the Labour Party and the Greens. At present the ALP (31) and Greens (9) control a majority of Senate seats (40 out of 76) and can block Government legislation until the new Senate first sits next July.

“If the Government can’t find a way to pass the legislation through the Senate after a period of three months, the option of calling a double dissolution Federal Election becomes available which will mean all House of Representative and Senate seats will be up for re-election. There have been six double dissolution elections in Australia’s history – the last being in 1987 under Prime Minister Bob Hawke in relation to the controversial Australia Card Bill, which was never passed.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5306 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 16/17, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,005 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - Two-Party Preferred - November 18, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0