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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Declined on Stock-Market Rout

The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in July was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
HIGHLIGHTS

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index fell by 2.5pts to 141.0 in July, the lowest level on record.

  • In terms of personal finances, 43.0% (up 1.1ppts from June) of respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially in July compared with the same time last year. Meanwhile, 12.5% (down 0.5ppt) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 56.3% (down 5.2ppts) expect their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 8.8% (up 0.7ppt) who expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.

  • On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ next year fell to 59.1% (down 0.8ppt), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ rose to a record high of 13.2% (up 1.3ppts). On longer-term economic performance, 66.1% (up 0.8ppt) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 13.9% (up 1.7ppts) said that there will be ‘bad times’.

  • In July, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items now declined to 37.0% (down 4.7ppts), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so edged up to 8% (up 0.2ppts).

  • Inflation expectations rose marginally to 3.42% (up 0.06ppts) in July.

ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:

"The record low consumer confidence in July was largely within expectations given the equity rout that started in June. The A-share market tumbled over 20% from its peak in mid-June during the period and the negative wealth effect was reflected in July’s consumer confidence reading.

"The market correction in the past few weeks should be viewed as a timely warning, allowing share prices to return to a level reflecting their underlying values. In addition, it offered market participants and regulators an invaluable lesson on risk and rational investing. We believe that the stock market rout has yet to become a systemic risk. While a stock market downturn has affected consumer confidence, the real economy in China has decoupled from the stock market performance in recent years, suggesting declines in share prices will unlikely drag growth much.


"However, the sharp correction of the equity market will provide rooms for the central bank to ease monetary policy. We expect that the PBoC will cut the benchmark interests by another 25bps in Q3 and lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by an additional 100bps by the end of this year."

ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Rating - July 2015 - 141.0

ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Rating - July 2015 - 141.0

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - July 2015.


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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

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