This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,010 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend March 19/20, 2016.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged 0.3% lower to 116.0 this week, following a strong 4.5% rise over the previous fortnight. Confidence is now sitting 3% above its long run average, and the four week moving average is on an upward trend.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics Felicity Emmett commented:
- In contrast to the recent trend, households’ views towards their own finances fell a solid 3.0% last week as confidence in the 12 month outlook fell 5.7%. Slightly offsetting this was a small rise (+0.4%) in households’ views towards their current personal finances.
- On the other hand, confidence in the economic outlook rose this week, continuing the steady improvement over the past six weeks. The sub-index on ‘economic conditions in the next 12 months’ rose 3.3% and is now sitting just a touch below its long run average. The sub-index on ‘economic conditions in the next 5 years’ also improved, rising 2.7% last week.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidated last week after a sharp run up over the previous fortnight. At current levels confidence looks quite healthy and is above its long run average. The improving labour market is likely to be an important factor supporting confidence. Last week’s news that the unemployment rate dipped back to 5.8% was particularly encouraging. Moreover, equity markets continued to recover from their February lows and petrol prices remain low. Looking forward, the government’s decision to bring forward the Budget has brought it into the spotlight, along with the prospect of a double dissolution election. The news flow around both these events over the next few months is likely to play an important role in shaping consumer confidence.”
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, commented:
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is vritually unchanged this week at a high level of 116.0 and Roy Morgan Government Confidence has increased slightly to 103.5, both signs that Australians believe the economy is going well which augurs well for the Turnbull Government heading towards this year's Federal Election - which may be held as soon as July given Turnbull's actions yesterday.
"However the support for the L-NP Government has fallen in recent weeks - this week's Morgan Poll shows the ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis - as the Government introduced reforms to change the Senate voting system and make it impossible for 'micro-parties' to get elected to the Senate.
"In addition to forcing these contentious reforms through the Senate, Turnbull has gone back on his promises of tax cuts and this has resulted in a drop of support for the Turnbull Government.
"As I said in our voting intention release yesterday 'Although Turnbull is using the restoration of the ABCC as a potential trigger to call an early election, the election will be fought on economic issues and taxation.
“In terms of creating jobs and reducing unemployment Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is on the record saying Labor will reduce Australian unemployment to 5%. However, ABS unemployment (5.8% in February) is not a real reflection of the Australian labour market. The latest Roy Morgan February Unemployment estimate shows Australia’s real level of unemployment (10.0% - 1.319 million) and under-employment (8.8% - 1.161 million) are far higher than the estimates published by the ABS.
“By relying on the ‘wrong’ ABS unemployment figures Shorten is making the same mistake made by previous Governments which has led to the same policy errors that haven’t addressed Australia’s major problem – tackling the 18.8% (2.48 million) of Australians looking for work or looking for more work.
“To reduce Australia’s ‘real’ level of unemployment and under-employment the Government must introduce comprehensive industrial relations reform that cuts ‘red tape’ such as lowering or eliminating excessive penalty rates for working on weekends and public holidays and which would lead to higher productivity and wages across the whole workforce. The Government must also make an effort to deal with Australia’s large ‘cash economy’ that undercuts legitimate Australian businesses and facilitates massive tax avoidance.
“The first step is to ‘recognise’ the problem of Australia’s true unemployment and under-employment. Only by using accurate statistics can the Australian Government, and institutions including the Reserve Bank of Australia, implement the correct economic policies. For instance, the Reserve Bank should reduce Australia’s ridiculously high interest rates today!”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.