Roy Morgan Research
July 24, 2020

L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8474
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Support for the L-NP has increased to 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to the Morgan Poll over the weekends of July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,589 Australian electors interviewed using a combination of telephone and online interviews.

L-NP support is up 1% point from mid-June as a second wave of COVID-19 has hit Victoria, and to a lesser extent New South Wales, over the last few weeks.

Support for the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis is strongest in Queensland: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, WA: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%, SA: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47% and NSW: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%.

However, the ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in both Victoria: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Tasmania: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP has increased to 43.5% (up 1% point since mid-June) and is now a full 10% ahead of the  ALP on 33.5% (down 1%).

Greens support is up 0.5% to 11.0% while support for One Nation is at 2.5% (down 1.5%). Support for Independents/Others is up 1% to 9.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down 9.5pts to 114.5 in July – dramatically down by 16pts to 104 in Victoria

In contrast to the improvement in political support for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined substantially over the last month, down 9.5pts to 114.5 in mid-July. Government Confidence is now at it’s lowest since mid-March before the COVID-19 pandemic had fully impacted on Australia.

Now just under half, 49% (down 4.5% since mid-June) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 34.5% (up 5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

There are large differences between States when it comes to Government Confidence. Unsurprisingly, Government Confidence has fallen most drastically in Victoria, down 16pts to only 104.

Three States are clustered around the national average with Government Confidence in Queensland at 115 just ahead of New South Wales on 113.5 and Tasmania on 111.

However, Western Australia maintains a very high rating of 136 in July ahead of South Australia on 130.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says a new wave of COVID-19 is now hitting Australia and early forecasts of a quick ‘snapback’ for the economy have receded:

“The L-NP Federal Government (51.5%) has increased its lead over the ALP (48.5%) over the last month as a new wave of COVID-19 has impacted heavily on Victoria with the Melbourne metropolitan area now in a second lockdown – and mandatory mask wearing now enforced.

“The new wave of COVID-19 has prompted other States to keep their borders closed to Victorians and NSW has closed the border to its southern neighbour for the first time in a century.

“Support for the L-NP is highest in its traditional strongholds of Queensland and Western Australia but the Government has also enjoyed an increase in support in Victoria compared to a month ago – though it still trails the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.

“The renewed threat posed by  COVID-19 has dealt a blow to hopes of a quick ‘snap-back’ of the Australian economy. The Government support packages JobKeeper and JobSeeker have been extended for an extra six months until March 2021, albeit at reduced rates, as international travel remains closed and State borders within Australia prevent easy travel between States.

“In a sign of the tough economic times brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic Treasurer Josh Frydenberg this week unveiled Australia’s largest Federal Budget deficit since World War II of $86 billion for the 2019/20 fiscal year and a forecast Budget deficit blow out to more than $184 billion for the current fiscal year.

“Only a few months ago before COVID-19 came along the Federal Government was forecasting a Federal Budget surplus for 2019/20 of $5 billion. This would have been Australia’s first Federal Budget surplus since the Global Financial Crisis but the severe economic contraction brought on by COVID-19 means Government spending is set to remain at elevated levels for years to come.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,589 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020. A higher than usual 8% of electors (up 1% from a month ago) can’t say who they support.

Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

ElectorsRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202053.529.512417100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 20204934.5114.516.5100
Change-4.5+5-9.5pts-0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting IntentionRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
L-NP
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202075.513.516211100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020672014713100
Change-8.5+6.5-15pts+2
ALP
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202043.536.510720100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 20204139.5101.519.5100
Change-2.5+3-5.5pts-0.5
Greens
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202027.556.57116100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202026.55868.515.5100
Change-1+1.5-2.5pts-0.5
Independents/Others
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202032.546.58621100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202028.556.57215100
Change-4+10-14pts-6.5
Can’t say*
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202044.524.512031100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 20204626.5119.527.5100
Change+1.5+2-0.5pts-3.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

RegionRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
Capital Cities
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202052.530.512217100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202048.535113.516.5100
Change-4+4.5-8.5pts-0.5
Country Areas
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202054.528.512617100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202049.533116.517.5100
Change-5+4.5-9.5pts+0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

StateRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
NSW
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205433.5120.512.5100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 20204935.5113.515.5100
Change-5+2-7pts+3
Victoria
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020513012019100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202043.539.510417100
Change-7.5+9.5-16pts-2
Queensland
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205226.5125.521.5100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202047.532.511520100
Change-4.5+6-10.5pts-1.5
WA
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020642014416100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202060.524.513615100
Change-3.5+4.5-8pts-1
SA
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205530.5124.514.5100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020572713016100
Change+2-3.5+5.5pts+1.5
Tasmania
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020453610919100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020493811113100
Change+4+2+2pts-6

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

GenderRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
Women
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020532812519100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202048.532116.519.5100
Change-4.5+4-8.5pts+0.5
Men
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205431.5122.514.5100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202049.536.511314100
Change-4.5+5-9.5pts-0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

AgeRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
18-34
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202049.530119.520.5100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020463611018100
Change-3.5+6-9.5pts-1.5
35-49
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202048.531.511720100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202045.537108.517.5100
Change-3+5.5-8.5pts-2.5
50-64
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202056.531125.512.5100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202048.535113.516.5100
Change-8+4-12pts+4
65+
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202064.523.514112100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20206026.5133.513.5100
July 11/12 & 18/19, 20205728.5128.514.5100
Change-3+2-5pts+1

For further information:

ContactOfficeMobile
Gary Morgan:+61 3 9224 5213+61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:+61 3 9224 5215+61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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