Australian unemployment unchanged at 9.2% in November – the first month after the end of the NSW and Victoria lockdowns

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.33 million Australians were unemployed in November, up 10,000 on October (9.2% of the workforce), and 1.21 million Australians were under-employed, down 0.3% points to 8.3% of the workforce.

• Workforce increased by 178,000 to 14.52 million in November:
  The workforce in November was 14,517,000 (up 178,000 from October) – comprised of 13,187,000 employed Australians (up 168,000) and 1,330,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 10,000). It is important to understand that the workforce participation rate of Australians aged 14+ (68.6%) is 1.5% points higher now than it was prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (67.1%) with more Australians now both employed and unemployed than pre-pandemic.

• Employment in November increased to 13.19 million, full-time employment highest since June 2021:
  Australian employment increased 168,000 to 13,187,000 in November with full-time employment increasing by 51,000 to 8,789,000, its highest since June 2021 – before the outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in Sydney. Part-time employment was up by 117,000 to 4,398,000.

• Unemployment was virtually unchanged in November after the end of the long lockdowns:
  1,330,000 Australians were unemployed (9.2% of the workforce), up 10,000 from October. There was an increase in people looking for full-time work, up 111,000 to 582,000 while there was a significant drop in those looking for part-time work, down 101,000 to 748,000 as employment in part-time work increased by 117,000 – as mentioned above.

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – November 2021. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for November show unemployment was unchanged at 9.2% while under-employment fell 0.3% points to 8.3%. This means total unemployment and under-employment of 17.5% with over 2.5 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“It is important to understand there have been several impacts of the pandemic that are still playing out in the Australian labour market. One of the biggest impacts is the sustained increase in the workforce participation rate which is now at 68.6% in November 2021, up from 67.1% in February 2020.

“The increase in the workforce participation rate has been sustained throughout 2021 with the workforce participation rate averaging 68.7% of Australians aged 14+ so far this year. The increased participation rate underlies the increases in both employment and unemployment compared to pre-pandemic. There are now more people employed in both full-time and part-time work and also more people looking for work than there was in February 2020.

“The pandemic has impacted the way people work and this has proved attractive to many people. The increased flexibility available due to an increase in remote-working, and working-from-home, has helped many people find suitable jobs and the departure of many backpackers and international students has opened up many jobs for locals that weren’t available before.

“The good news in November was the increase in employment, which was up 168,000 to 13,187,000 as NSW, Victoria and the ACT all enjoyed a month out of lockdown for the first time since April 2021. Full-time employment increased in both NSW and Victoria in November.

“The re-opening of the Australian economy progressed during November with the international border coming down for those returning to NSW and Victoria, and later in the month the South Australian border was also re-opened to all domestic travellers.

“In the run-up to Christmas the Queensland and Tasmanian borders are set to re-open to all domestic travellers next week which will allow freedom of movement between the whole eastern seaboard for fully vaccinated Australians. These re-openings will provide a significant boost to the tourism industries in both States that have been hit hard by the pandemic and associated border closures.

“The latest data from Roy Morgan’s collaboration with UberMedia shows average 7-day movement levels in Australia’s Capital City CBDs are still significantly below the pre-pandemic averages – although they are picking up.

“The 7-day movement levels in the Adelaide CBD, Perth CBD, Brisbane CBD and Hobart CBD are all above 70% of pre-pandemic averages while in the Melbourne CBD (47%) and Sydney CBD (43%) they are still at less than half the pre-pandemic level. However, since the lockdowns ended these figures are increasing rapidly and should approach pre-pandemic levels in the new year.

“The return of people to Australia’s largest Capital City CBDs is vital to re-invigorate the many businesses that are based in the CBDs and can provide a further boost to employment growth during the months ahead as Australia progresses to a ‘COVID-normal’ 2022.”